Thursday, October 14, 2010

The Night Of The Pitcher

Now, this little tidbit doesn't mean much, but it's a good place to start as we prepare for one of the most exciting pitching matchups in postseason baseball history, Saturday night's game between Philadelphia's Roy Halladay and San Francisco's Tim Lincecum. I cannot begin to tell you how psyched I am for this game. Well, actually, I will tell you quite a bit about that.

But let's start with this bit of obscurity ...

There have only been nine postseason matchups ever between multiple Cy Young Award winners. They are as follows:

-- 1966, World Series Game 2: Jim Palmer vs. Sandy Koufax.

Comment: What I did here was look for any match-up between pitchers who EVENTUALLY were multiple Cy Young winners. In 1966, Jim Palmer was only a rookie and it would be seven years before he won even his first Cy Young. Koufax, meanwhile, was fully formed, having just finished his last and perhaps greatest season. In other words, this game would only be seen as a great pitching match-up years later. And, so of course, it did not go at all like expected. Palmer flashed some of his future brilliance throwing a four-hit shutout while Koufax, not exactly helped by four of the six errors the Dodgers committed, was pulled after only six innings (and having allowed four runs, one of them earned).

-- 1968, World Series Games 1 and 4: Bob Gibson vs. Denny McLain.

Comment: In this case, neither of the pitchers were multiple Cy Young winners while the Series was going on. Neither had won a single Cy Young yet. Gibson would win the 1968 award after the World Series and then win his second Cy Young in 1970. And while people tend to remember McLain for his 30-win season and the various legal troubles he had afterward, he did win back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 1968 and 1969. McLain at 25 had already won 114 games and two Cy Young Awards, pretty amazing.

Their match-up was wildly hyped in '68, of course. Both had just come off seasons for the ages. McLain had won 30 and Gibson had finished with a 1.12 ERA. Anyway, both of their games turned out to be pretty terrible pitching matchups. In Game 1, Gibson had one of the most dominating performances in World Series history, he threw a shutout, and he struck out 17 which is still a World Series record. McLain, meanwhile, only lasted five innings and gave up three runs -- walks to Roger Maris and Tim McCarver, back-to-back singles by Mike Shannon and Julian Javier, an error thrown in, and that was the end.

Game 4 was even more lopsided. Gibson allowed one run and struck out 10. McClain could not even get out of the third inning. Lou Brock, one of the great postseason performers by the way, led off the game with a homer off McLain. The Cardinals added an unearned run in the inning -- that run coming on a McLain error -- and then battered McLain in the third.

McLain came back to pitch a brilliant complete game in Game 6. And Gibson battled -- and lost -- the seventh game to the Tigers and the irrepressible Mickey Lolich.

-- 1995, NL Division Series Game 4: Greg Maddux vs. Bret Saberhagen.

Comment: There wasn't a lot of hype about this one because by 1995, Saberhagen was a shell of his younger self. He had won his second Cy Young way back in 1989, and though he had pitched reasonably well since then (he was terrific in the strike-shortened 1994 season for the Mets) he had not pitched a lot. Injuries had drained much of his young brilliance.

Maddux, meanwhile, was about to win his fourth straight Cy Young Award and was at the height of his powers. He would still have, I figure, four excellent seasons, and a handful of good ones, but he would never again have as good a year as he had in 1994 and 1995. Over those two seasons, Maddux was 35-8 with a 1.60 ERA, a 266 ERA+, 337 Ks to 54 walks, six shutouts, the master of everything. I have never enjoyed watching a pitcher more than I did Maddux in those years.

Neither pitcher threw well in this game. Maddux got rapped around a bit, allowing 10 hits, two homers and four runs in seven innings. Saberhagen got the worse of hit, lasting only four innings and giving up six runs, five of them earned.

-- 1999 ALCS Game 3, Pedro Martinez vs. Roger Clemens.

-- 2003 ALCS Games 3 and 7, Pedro Martinez vs. Roger Clemens.

These should have been the most anticipated pitching matchups in recent postseason history -- perhaps the two most dominant pitchers of the era and two powerful personalities going at it -- but for whatever reason I don't remember them that way. Maybe it's because none of the games turned out to be remarkable pitching duels.

The 1999 game turned into a joke and fast. Clemens lasted only two innings, he gave up a homer to John Valentin in the first, gave up a couple of doubles, a single and a walk in the second, got pulled after one batter in the third. Pedro, meanwhile, cruised for seven shutout innings, striking out 12.

The third game of the 2003 ALCS was better, but still hardly a classic. Pedro gave up four runs in seven innings -- the Derek Jeter homer and Hideki Matsui's run-scoring ground-rule double are what stand out -- and Clemens gave up two runs in six innings. What I really remember about that game is what I tend to remember about many Yankees postseason triumphs: Mariano Rivera threw two perfect innings to close it out.

The seventh game of the 2003 ALCS is a classic, but only because everyone remembers Grady Little refusing to take out Pedro in the eighth and Aaron Boone's 11th inning homer. It's easy to forget -- I DID forget -- that Clemens actually started that game for the Yankees. He got pulled after three ineffective innings. Over his career, Roger Clemens had one of the greatest postseason performances ever -- his 15 strikeouts, one-hit shutout against Seattle in the 2000 ALCS -- and his two-hit, no-run performance against the Mets in the 2001 World Series was both controversial (throwing the bat toward Piazza) and indisputable. But he did start 32 other postseason games and throw 182 other postseason innings, and his ERA in those was 4.10.

-- 2001 NLCS Game 1, Greg Maddux vs. Randy Johnson.

This could have -- maybe even should have -- become the Ali-Frazier pitching matchup of the era, two utterly dominant pitchers doing it two completely different ways. Unfortunately, this was the only time they matched up in the playoffs.

The game was indeed a bit of a pitching classic. The Diamondbacks scraped a run in the first helped along by a Marcus Giles error -- it was not an unearned run, but the error clearly played a role. Craig Counsell singled, moved to third when Luis Gonzalez reached on the Giles error. Then Reggie Sanders singled in Counsell.

Counsell scored the Diamondbacks second run too, that was in the fifth when he doubled and scored on Gonzalez's single.

That was it -- two runs for Arizona. It was plenty. Unit threw a complete game, three-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts.

-- 2001 NLCS Game 5, Tom Glavine vs. Randy Johnson.

Different multiple-Cy-Young winner for the Braves facing Unit, same story. Glavine was 35 by the time of this game, and though he would still have some good moments left, he was no longer quite as great as he had been. He allowed a run in the fourth, but the Braves tied it in the bottom of the inning when 498-year-old Julio Franco homered off Unit -- the first run the Braves managed against Johnson. But as Braves fans will remember clearly, the next half inning Craig Counsell reached on an error, and pinch-hitter Erubiel Durazo homered off Glavine to give the Diamondbacks a lead that they would not lose.

OK, so that's all of them. As you can see, these match-ups have been a mixed bag. If you want to go to the time before the Cy Young Award, yes, there certainly were some remarkable postseason pitching match-ups ... you have Koufax against Whitey Ford, you have Lefty Grove against Burleigh Grimes, you have Lefty Gomez against Dizzy Dean, you have Christy Mathewson against Eddie Plank and so on. But the truth seems to be this: Two truly great pitchers, both in their prime, facing off in the postseason ... it's a rare, rare thing.

And we get it tomorrow night in Philadelphia.

At the moment, this is NOT YET a match-up of multiple-Cy Young winners. But it will be -- Tim Lincecum has already won two Cy Youngs, and when the voting is announced in a few weeks we'll get official confirmation that Roy Halladay will win his second Cy Young in 2010. It will be, I believe, the first ever matchup between last year's Cy Young winner and this year's.

And more than the awards, this is a matchup between perhaps the two most striking pitchers in the game. The best of rivalries -- Ali-Frazier, Brady-Manning, Evert-Navratilova, Watson-Nicklaus, Magic-Bird, Sampras-Agassi, Tom-Jerry -- offer something beyond ferocious competition, something beyond compelling games. They offer clashing styles, interlocking pieces, thrust-parry, point-counterpoint.

And here you go. Halladay personifies persistence, mind-numbing persistence, he pounds the strike zone again and again and again with similar pitches, a fastball that cuts and a cutter that's fast, over and over, almost always on the inside corner or the outside corner, over and over, fastball and cutter three-quarters of the time, with an occasional change-up or curveball to throw a wrench into the machine and send the hitter's body into convulsions. Halladay set a career high in strikeouts this year -- he did throw his swing-and-miss change-up more than ever before -- and he walked just THIRTY batters, and more than anything he kept on coming at hitters relentlessly. No starter in the game throws a heavier pitch; when you see how the ball thuds off the bat you would swear Halladay is throwing billiard balls. Boxing (like chess) has become more of an example than spectator sport -- that is to say it's more fun to compare stuff to boxing than to actually watch boxing -- but it does seem true that Halladay works the body, scoring points and wearing down opponents with every pitch. He's remarkable to watch because he's so unremarkable to watch. He's a master craftsman. He pitches older than his 33 years.

Tim Lincecum, meanwhile, personifies youth, excitement, genius. There's nobody QUITE like him. There has never been anyone QUITE like him. He has that weird windup that inspired people to call him Freak, the mid-to-high 90s fastball that seems to be thrown out of a sling shot, the absurd curveball that at times still seems to move like one of those toy remote control helicopters, and the even more absurd change-up that flutters around erratically, even emotionally, like an 8-year-old child in Toys R Us. And, of course, he's maintaining that skateboard-dude vibe (as an editor pointed out to me, he is kind of the spitting image of the skateboard bully Dolph from the Simpsons), and so you are never entirely sure what he's going to do.

Halladay is a classic black and white movie starring someone like Humphrey Bogart -- you could see him pitching in a tux.

Lincecum is a 3D comedy adventure starring Adam Sandler -- you could see him pulling out a guitar and singing a funny song on the mound.

And this takes the match-up to new heights -- I can never remember being so fired up for a postseason pitching duel. Of course, pitching duels can fizzle quickly -- a bad early inning by either pitcher more or less ends the fun. But I don't think this one will fizzle. They are both breathtakingly good, at the height of their powers, coming off legendary performances. The scene will be crazy in Philadelphia. Everything lines up.

And the beautiful thing is we could see the duel again in San Francisco. As I've written before, I never entirely bought into the idea that 2010 was "The Year of the Pitcher." Go back and look at the numbers from 1968 ... THAT was the year of the pitcher. There was plenty of offense this year. But Saturday should be the night of the pitcher. For a night, we might just go back to 1968.

42 comments:

  1. Personally, whenever I see Lincecum I think of Mitch Kramer from Dazed & Confused

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  2. How is it that each column by Joe seems better and more interesting than the previous? These must be some weird time-space, non-euclidean slight-of-hand going on here. . .

    Circle me, Albert Einstein!

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  3. Ah, 1999. My cousin's Bar Mitzvah in Newton (MA) and two of my friends getting married in Detroit. I missed the game because I was on the flight between them. Clemens missed the game because them.

    "Where is Roger?" [Clap, clap, clap-clap-clap]
    "Where is Roger?" [Clap, clap, clap-clap-clap]
    "Where is Roger?" [Clap, clap, clap-clap-clap]


    "In the shower!" [Clap, clap, clap-clap-clap]
    "In the shower!" [Clap, clap, clap-clap-clap]
    "In the shower!" [Clap, clap, clap-clap-clap]

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  4. The lesson is: you didn't want Roger Clemens on the mound in a big game.

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  5. I'm surprised that there have been so few matchups between pitchers at the peak of greatness, especially when teams can generally set the matchups for game 1.

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  6. The most-anticipated postseason pitching matchup that I can remember (my memory for such things dates back to 1982) is Game 2 of the 1986 World Series. Unanimous 1985 NL Cy Young winner Dwight Gooden against soon-to-be unanimous 1986 AL winner (and many times thereafter) Clemens. They'd won them with identical 24-4 records (though Gooden's 1985 was quite a bit better than Clemens' 1986) but the actual matchup didn't come close to matching the hype.

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  7. I'm pretty sure the folks in SF don't call Timmy "Freak" because of his windup. See CSNY's Almost Cut My Hair where David Crosby refers to his long hair as "letting my freak flag fly". Also see anything about Frank Zappa and the freak subculture.

    Youngsters...piffle!

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  8. This post reminds me of how nice it is to have dominant pitchers again. There is a real chance we'll see a 0-0 game going into the 9th tomorrow night, rather than nondescript 6 IP, 3ER, 115 pitch outings, as we've seen in the postseason time and again in the steroid era.

    And it's too bad Cliff Lee had to pitch game 5 of the ALDS, or else we'd have two one-time Cy Young winners going in game 1 of the ALCS. Not as great a matchup as Halladay/Lincecum, but not too shabby either.

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  9. But you missed the fact that the Phillies have a line-up for the ages while the Giants have, at best, an average lineup of average hitters who hit...well...averagely.

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  10. Clemens won the 1998 AL CYA and Martinez the 1999, so that '99 matchup fits the "last season v. this season CYA winner" theme.

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  11. http://www.paapfly.com/2010/10/epic-game-1-showdown-freak-vs-doc.html

    Link for more on this game...

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  12. Also, Phillies' lineup is surely not one for the ages, not by a long shot...

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  13. @ Chris Fiorentino...sigh. Must you take every possible oportunity to trumpet the Phillies? Nobody "missed the fact" and nobody is under any illusions that the Giants' lineup is anywhere near as good as the Phillies. We're just talking about pitching right now, ok?

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  14. Can't wait for the Lincecum-Halladay match-up but Tim doesn't quite throw in the mid to high 90's ... more like consistently low 90's and top out at 93-94. Aside from his great change-up and serviceable curveball is the new slider he's been throwing this year. Just wicked ... it's a guaranteed swing and a miss (since Lincecum bounces it often) - that single pitch made the Braves look foolish. It'll be interesting to see whether the Phillies - and their more "established" line-up can lay off the slider.

    Another interesting note is that Lincecum pitched his much anticipated MLB debut against the Phillies ... and was lit up. So there's definitely some history behind this NLCS match-up.

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  15. This NLCS reminds me a lot of the 1988 NLCS with the Phillies in the role of the Mets and the Giants in the role of the Dodgers.

    The 1988 Mets were the team with the "lineup for the ages" and the murderer's row of starting pitching (though none was as good that year as the Phils' big 3 except for Cone - the Mets could run out a much better #4 though). The 1988 Dodgers had Hershiser, Leary and Belcher and not much offense, very comparable to Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez and not much offense.

    I think most people would think that if the Phillies win Game 1 it will be all but over (i.e., that the Giants can't recover from losing a game that Lincecum pitches). Those 1988 Dodgers did recover from losing Game 1 with Hershiser on the mound but they had 2 starts and a relief appearance from Orel later in the series. All indications are that the Giants will only have one more start from Lincecum after Game 1. So I'm with the multitude who think the Giants cannot win this series if they don't win with Lincecum on the mound in Game 1.

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  16. "It will be, I believe, the first ever matchup between last year's Cy Young winner and this year's."

    We got Cliff Lee vs. CC in the playoffs last year. That was close.

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  17. Not sure why people are so convinced that the Giants can't win unless Lincecum is beastly. By reguler season stats, Sanchez and Cain were both better. ERAs lower by .30 and Cain had a significnatly lower WHIP. Baumgarner (sp?) is probably better than Blanton as well. Seems the Giants can win multiple ways and that the path of least resistance is winning the games that Halladay is not pitching (ie. the same games that Lincecum is not pitching). Obviously Oswalt and Hamels are excellent as well. Seems like every game wil be an excellent pitching matchup.

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  18. Can't really see how to make a case for Giants in this series. This is a team that usually wins by having the superior starting pitching and then scrapping out a run or two with what has to be considered a pop-gun offense.

    In this series I think the best case you can make on the starting pitching front is that it is a wash 1 thru 3 in the rotations. SF has the better bullpen but I don't expect philly to need a lot of innings from theirs.

    The difference in the lineups is staggering though. Position by position the only clear cut SF win is at catcher. At the other 7 spots it is either a big philly edge(Utley vs Sanchez) or a minor one(Rollins vs Uribe). Would like to see a long series but not sure exactly how that can happen.

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  19. I don't know... for my money, Lincecum is much more a Jimbo lookalike than a Dolph lookalike

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  20. Anyone know which NL team led the league in HR's on the road this season? Anyone? The Giants, and their "pop-gun offense" (whatever that means). If you've watched this Giants team at all this season, you know that they're much more likely to explode for 8+ runs than they are to lose a close, low scoring game. I'm certainly not saying that I *expect* them to win this series, but some of the arguments here are baseless.

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  21. So this post and a prior one by Joe got me thinking about which playoff games featured the best pitching performances by both starters. So I took James' Game Score stat for the 2 starting pitchers in each playoff game (since 1932) and added them, and when I did so I found that these playoff games (and these 2 starters) had the highest combined Game Score:

    177: Mike Cuellar (BAL 84) & Ken Holtzman (OAK 93), 1973 ALCS Game 3
    170: Dave Boswell (MIN 73) & Dave McNally (BAL 97), 1969 ALCS Game 2
    168: Vida Blue (OAK 90) & Jim Palmer (BAL 78), 1974 ALCS Game 3
    167: Don Newcombe (BRK 79) & Allie Reynolds (NYY 88), 1949 WS Game 1
    162: Nolan Ryan (HOU 90) & Dwight Gooden (NYM 72), 1986 NLCS Game 5
    161: Sal Maglie (BRK 67) & Don Larsen (NYY 94), 1956 WS Game 5
    161: Bob Turley (NYY 80) & Clem Labine (BRK 81), 1956 WS Game 6
    159: Woody Williams (STL 77) & Brandon Backe (HOU 82), 2004 NLCS Game 5
    159: Greg Maddux (ATL 69) & Livan Hernandez (FLA 90), 159 1995 NLCS Game 5
    159: Josh Beckett (FLA 73) & Jason Schmidt (SFG 86), 159 2003 NLDS Game 1
    159: Mort Cooper (STL 83) & Denny Galehouse (SLB 76), 1944 WS Game 5
    158: Bob Feller (CLE 73) & Johnny Sain (BSB 85), 1948 WS Game 1
    158: Charlie Leibrandt (KC 74) & Milt Wilcox (DET 84), 1984 ALCS Game 3

    Interestingly, 5 of the 11 highest combined Games Scores occurred in a Game 5 of a Series (even odder in so much as some of the LCSes and all LDSes could last no longer than 5 games); 3 of the 13 listed occurred in a Game 1 (like tonight?). Two occurred in back-to-back games (Larsen's perfect game and the game after). I would suspect that pre-1932 there are some equally high combined Game Scores given the greater frequency of complete games (including extra-inning complete games) and lower frequency of runs back then. While almost all of these pitchers were good to very good for at least a spell, it isn't exactly a list chock full of Hall of Famers. Feller, Palmer, Ryan, and eventually Maddux are the only ones I see listed, and none of them appeared more than once.

    {Please feel free to correct me if I've missed a game, as my fact checking department is on hiatus}

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  22. Anon wrote: "Position by position the only clear cut SF win is at catcher". Really? How about 1st base?

    Huff: .385 OBP/.506 SLG/26 HR/16% K rate
    Howard: .353 OBP/.505 SLG/31 HR/28.5% K rate (yikes!).

    Take away HR's, which inflate Howard's SLG, bc of the fact that Howard plays in a bandbox and Huff plays in one of the toughest HR parks for a lefty, and it's no contest. Huff is EASILY superior to Howard. At least this season he was. Not to say that the Giants offense can compare to the Phillies', but it's just another example of most talking heads thinking this series isn't worth playing b/c the Phillies are so dominant.

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  23. I like Lincecum as Mitch too. I absolutely loved the picture of Halliday and Lincecum from a couple days ago - what a study in contrasts.

    And yup, Linceum has been the third-best starter on the club this year. Sanchez keeps his head together and people are going to be surprised.

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  24. I pick the Phillies, but are people so sure that the Giants lineup is so comparatively weak. Besides the Posey and Huff examples already mentioned, I am not sure the Phillies have the offensive advantage with Ibanez vs. Burrell or Victorino vs. Torres.

    And calling the Phillies lineup one for the ages is beyond hyperbole. It is a good offense but not even the best in the National League this year.

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  25. >>>It will be, I believe, the first ever matchup between last year's Cy Young winner and this year's.>>>

    Joe, Joe, Joe. This isn't the first, or the second -- it'll be the FIFTH time it's happened (barring some absurd vote for CYA this year.)

    As I posted on the B-R blog when they, too, gave in to the ludicrous hype of this matchup -- and don't get me wrong, I'm looking forward to Saturday's game as much as anyone:

    -- In 1999, soon-to-be CYA winner Pedro Martinez and reigning CYA winner Roger Clemens met in Game 3 of the ALCS. (Red Sox won, 13-1.)

    -- In 1991, soon-to-be CYA winner Tom Glavine and reigning CYA winner Doug Drabek met in Game 1 of the NLCS. (Pirates won, 5-1.)

    -- In 1986, soon-to-be CYA winner Mike Scott and reigning CYA winner Dwight Gooden met in Game 1 of the NLCS. That matchup actually lived up to the hype. (Astros won, 1-0.)

    -- In 1970, soon-to-be CYA winner Jim Perry and reigning CYA winner Mike Cuellar met in Game 1 of the ALCS. (Orioles won, 10-6).

    ***

    In addition, you've got the aforementioned 2001 NLCS matchup between soon-to-be CYA winner Randy Johnson and the last guy in his league to win it, Tom Glavine.

    And you've got the 1968 World Series matchups between soon-to-be CYA winners Gibson and McLain, also mentioned.

    Plus, there's the 1963 World Series matchups between soon-to-be CYA winner Sandy Koufax and the last guy to win it, Whitey Ford, back in the one-CYA era. (The Dodgers won both games.)

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  26. It's interesting that I really don't remember Pedro VS Clemens ever being that great, even in the regular season. The Pedro opponent I usually remember (post 2000) is Mussina.

    And in fact, in Game 7 of the ALCS, it was Mussina, after Roger left him in a first and third, nobody out jam, escaping without allowing a run and then pitching a few scoreless innings that allowed the Yankees to come back.

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  27. I think this picture of the two of them from a couple of years back sums up exactly what you're talking about, I love it:

    http://blog.pennlive.com/patriotnewssports/2009/07/large_roy_halladay_tim_lincecum.jpg

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  28. "Mark Daniel said...
    This post reminds me of how nice it is to have dominant pitchers again. There is a real chance we'll see a 0-0 game going into the 9th tomorrow night, rather than nondescript 6 IP, 3ER, 115 pitch outings, as we've seen in the postseason time and again in the steroid era."

    I don't know. There were some pretty damn good pitchers in the steroid era. Maddux, Pedro, Johnson, Clemens, Glavine, Smoltz, Mussina, Schilling, Brown, etc. weren't exactly scrubs.

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  29. Isn't it Jimbo that Lincecum looks like?

    At least tomorrow there's a good chance we won't see bullpens blow leads, or even make any appearance at all.

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  30. "Anonymous said...
    I don't know. There were some pretty damn good pitchers in the steroid era. Maddux, Pedro, Johnson, Clemens, Glavine, Smoltz, Mussina, Schilling, Brown, etc. weren't exactly scrubs."
    I agree, some of the greatest pitchers ever. But my point was that they didn't necessarily deliver in the postseason. I think Curt Schilling did. Clemens had a couple great games. And so on, but generally, when you were looking for a pitching duel, you didn't get it. Or, you only got a decent one for maybe 6 innings before the bullpens took over.

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  31. The Texas Failures made four mammoth mistakes to choke away a 5-1 lead in the final two innings and give the Yankees game one of the American League Championship Series on Friday night.

    In the top of the eighth inning, the Texas Failures committed three colossal screw-ups.

    First, on Brett Gardner's bouncer between first and second, Texas Failures pitcher C.J. Wilson neglected to quickly cover first base, thus allowing Gardner to get an infield single to lead off the inning.

    Second, on Derek Jeter's ensuing double down the left-field line, the Texas Failures violated one of the Cardinal Rules of Baseball:

    With a multiple-run lead in the late innings, the first and third basemen and left- and right-fielders must guard the lines to prevent a double. A double puts a runner in immediate scoring position. Give the opposition the single, but stop the double at all costs.

    Texas Failures third baseman Michael Young (more about him later) was playing a good eight feet off the third baseline - and doing so against not only a right-handed hitter in Jeter but a veteran, highly experienced right-handed hitter in Jeter. Had Young been playing on the third baseline, or just off the line, he would have been able to at least knock the ball down, limiting Jeter to a single and keeping Gardner at second base.

    Instead, Jeter's single became a double, Gardner scored, and the Yankees' rally was well underway. Blame either Young or Texas Failures manager Ron Washington for this glaring gaffe of positioning.

    Third, with the score 5-2 and two runners aboard, Texas Failures third baseman Young simply pulled a Matador on Alex Rodriguez's hard-hit ground ball. In so doing, Young violated another of the Cardinal Rules of Baseball:

    With runners on base, an infielder must use his body to block the ball - no matter how well hit - to prevent it from going into the outfield and thus keep the runners from scoring. This holds especially true in the late innings and is even more iron clad in both a close game and in the postseason.

    Instead, Young dropped to one knee, leaned away from the hard bouncer, and waved at the ball as it passed him and went into left field. Young's feeble lack of effort allowed Jeter and Nick Swisher to score. Robinson Cano and Marcus Thames followed with RBI-singles and the Yankees had taken the lead and the Rangers by the throat.

    In the bottom of the eighth inning, Ian Kinsler committed the Texas Failures fourth and final critical error. Kinsler, after drawing a four-pitch, lead-off walk from right-hander Kerry Wood, allowed Wood to easily pick him off first base and nix the Failures scoring threat.

    Even worse, Kinsler permitted Wood, a right-handed power pitcher, operating from the stretch with his back to first base and known to have a terrible pickoff move, to catch him napping and embarrass the Texas Failures and effectively end their promising scoring chance. Wood, a notably wild pitcher, had given the Texas Failures a gift with Kinsler's four-pitch lead-off walk. Kinsler promptly handed that gift - and the game - back to the Yankees.

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  32. @KyleL, There was one Pedro v. Clemens matchup that ought to be remembered as one of the great pitchers' duels ever.

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  33. "Take away HR's, which inflate Howard's SLG, bc of the fact that Howard plays in a bandbox..."

    Can we stop with this noise?

    Ryan Howard's career home/road splits:

    Home: .279/.377/.575
    Road: .279/.367/.569

    Whether or not CBP is an explicit hitters' park (and it, very clearly, is trending away from it), Howard's power is rooted in his opposite-field strength. He is not really a pull-power hitter. Move on from 2004. Do some reading.

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  34. chip,

    As a Phillies fan, I had no stake in this game, but I will always remember it as one fo the best games I've ever seen.

    Ebessan,

    Amen. Citizen's Bank has been middle of the pack for awhile now (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor)

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  35. Posted this on the SI blog, but that site still confuses me so I'm not sure if it actually worked.

    ----

    Fascinating stuff, although I'm a little confused about how it works.

    Why does the chance of scoring a run on a sac bunt increase as the pitcher gets better? That seems rather counter-intuitive.

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  36. ugh... wrong post.

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  37. Halladay isn't all Mr straight and narrow. He did team up with AJ Burnett to play a joke on Aaron Hill & Russ Adams a few years back.

    http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2006/03/30/1512322-sun.html

    http://www.themightymjd.com/2006/03/30/do-not-fuck-with-roy-halladay-and-aj-burnett/

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  38. Too bad the pitching duel didn't quite live up to its potential. Halladay's start was worse than the numbers considering how weak SF's offense is.

    About Lincecum, I don't why he doesn't get more Pedro comparisons. It's almost too easy with the similar heights and great changeups, though Lincecum's change might be more of a splitter instead. The comparison would be nearly perfect if Lincecum had been able to hold on to the great curveball he had in college and his first season.

    Maybe the more apt comparison for Lincecum is Johan Santana. They both have great changeups and throw it so often. The thing about Pedro is that while he's known for his changeup, he didn't throw all that much, certainly not at the rate Santana and Lincecum do. Pedro was a FB pitcher first and mixed in a curveball, cutter and change in equal amounts. With Lincecum no longer throwing in the mid-90s or having much of a curveball, he's a lot like Santana.

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  39. "These should have been the most anticipated pitching matchups in recent postseason history -- perhaps the two most dominant pitchers of the era and two powerful personalities going at it -- but for whatever reason I don't remember them that way. "

    I remember the '99 Game 3 matchup between Pedro and Clemens as being ridiculously hyped. Clemens as a Yankee was still fresh. Pedro had just pitched a miraculous 6 innings in relief against Cleveland, without any fastball. Tickets were being scalped for large sums of money. Of course, the game was not "one for the ages" because Roger was lit up and the rest of the Series was lopsided in the Yanks favor.

    In the 2003 ALCS, I think the battle between the two teams superseded the pitching matchup, which was only one aspect of a great series--and again, Clemens didn't pitch very well.

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  40. Whether 1999, 1986, 1990, the lesson about Roger is this: if you go into the game expecting a great pitching matchup, you're bound to have seen him lose.

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  41. Joe, I wanted to revisit this post in advance of Episode II tonight. Re-reading reminded me of something that I meant to post last time before my toddling son distracted me. As a longtime Astros fan, I am morally obligated both to agree that Clemens' postseason resume includes many duds, and to note that his list of memorable postseason moments includes a 3 IP relief stint in Game 4 of the 2005 NLDS.

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  42. Surely Game 3 of the 2003 ALCS was more memorable because of Zimmer and Pedro than Rivera throwing 2 innings, no?

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