Nerdy stat guy 1: As a pitcher Cliff Lee is CLEARLY superior to Zack Greinke.
Nerdy stat guy 2: Yes I completely agree with the following colossal exception: Before the fourth inning, after a road loss, in a domed stadium. Then it’s great to be Greinke!
-- Moneybart episode, The Simpsons
If you saw this Simpsons episode, you probably remember the scene -- Lisa went to the back of Moe's Tavern to find a little SABR convention going on. They were having this talk, where one was saying that Lee was better, and the other said it was true except, well, you see it above -- before the fourth, after a road loss, in a dome.
Well, you knew that at some point I was going to look it up, right? I mean ... it had to be done. Cliff Lee? Zack Greinke? A nerdy stat like that? OF COURSE I'm going to look it up. The only surprise is that it took this long.
I went back to 2008. I did not have to go back any more. It turns out that Zack Greinke pitched six games in domes after road losses (I counted retractable roof stadiums like Toronto and Seattle). And, by pure coincidence, Cliff Lee ALSO pitched six games after road losses.
I was praying for The Simpsons' statistic to be right. I figured they had 50-50 shot at it, and I figured that maybe, just maybe, some geek on the staff looked it up just to be sure.
Unfortunately ...
Zack Greinke in domes before the fourth inning after road losses: 18 innings, 12 earned runs, 6.00 ERA.
Cliff Lee in domes before the fourth inning after road losses: 18 innings 0 earned runs, 0.00 ERA.
Sigh.
Circle me, Joe Morgan
ReplyDeleteCircle me, fallen heroes.
ReplyDeleteNot only that, in episode 2F09 when Itchy plays Scratchy's skeleton like a xylophone, he strikes the same rib twice in succession, yet he produces two clearly different tones. I mean, what are we to believe, that this is some sort of a magic xylophone or something? Boy, I really hope somebody got fired for that blunder.
ReplyDeleteThis post makes me happy!
ReplyDeleteAwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww. I was hoping that that stat was true. [Illusion Shattered]
ReplyDeleteI want my favorite team to sign Cliff Lee and trade for Zack Greinke. [Illusion Shattered]
ReplyDeleteSo now, who's the geek? Just joking Joe.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that it is not even close is classic. Maybe it is so classic because they had to have known that it was a small sample size and that Greinke would have to pitch better, he was "due." Therefore Greinke would indeed be your man in domed stadiums before the fourth inning after a road loss.
ReplyDeleteThanks for looking it up. Wouldn't have expected less.
I expected this, too. While it surprised me that they got something so easily look-up-able wrong, what's more surprising is that this does not really do what sabermetrics is supposed to do. Sabermetrics is supposed to measure long-term trends, and any sort of stat like that is BOUND to have too small of a sample size. That made me sad from the get-go.
ReplyDeleteBut what about 2009, Greinke's big year? Come on, small sample sizes don't mean anything!
ReplyDeleteGood quote, Question mark!
ReplyDeleteHad I only been armed with this tidbit a little sooner, coulda passed this along . . . I was in a bar with Harry Shearer Thursday night (out in the world while Joe was in his mom's basement looking this up). I guess, though, Harry wouldn't have appreciated the interruption to his evening - disabuse may have prompted abuse.
ReplyDeleteHe was actually very sweet - very concerned that athough I'm 8 inches, taller, I might not have been able to see above him. Hm, I guess taking a swing and insisting that at 5'4" the guy behind you might not be able to see beyond you could each be expressions of the same complex.
Joe...you are a pissa...Im surprised the stat isnt correct...I would have bet it was dead on the money...
ReplyDeleteSee I used to think shows like the Simpsons were written by magical collections of offbeat characters drinking beers and smoking weed. No, it turns out half of everyone on that writing team went to Harvard. Something tells me the other half didnt go to community college.
I thought I would share that little factoid, since its the piece of information that effectively ended any ambition I had to try and earn one penny writing anything.
Apparently, you need a Harvard degree to work for the Simpsons , but you dont need a High School diploma to work on Wall Street. Maybe its just me, but something theres bleeped up.
Anyway , I didnt see that episode. On the one hand its a joke not to be taken literally, on the other hand they should have got it right.
Glaaaaavin!!
ReplyDeletePerhaps by the time this one hits syndication those numbers may have changed a bit. Lee is bound to pitch in the Rogers Center a few times when he goes to the Yankees. Greinke has some work to do, though.
ReplyDeleteAside from the fact that I was disappointed that the Simpsons was using such an obviously un-sabermetric approach in that quote (talk about small sample sizes - that's like people talking about how Joe Girardi is "Moneyball" because he has a book with players stats vs. pitchers and makes decisions based on 7 at-bat samples), it's pretty obvious that they used the pitchers they did in the way they did for the comical way the nerdy guy says "Grein-keeeey"
ReplyDeleteI'm assuming one of Greinke's starts was his horrid outing at the BOB where he also hit a "Homer."
ReplyDeleteThat is actually kind of disappointing. They had to know some (incredibly nerdy) people were going to look that up, right? If Grienke had the 0.00 ERA how amazing would that be to think they'd take the time to research it?
ReplyDeleteP.S. Joe, you are a dork.
And this is why Futurama is better than the Simpsons. You can be damn sure that David X. Cohen and his madcap crew of PhDs would have made a pertinent (and accurate) joke about small sample sizes rather than have their characters make such a horrendous error in basic statistics. ;)
ReplyDeleteWait... is "in a domed stadium" referring to the games you're comparing or to the road loss? Maybe you should look up their stats before the 4th inning in any game after they lost a road game in a domed stadium!
ReplyDeleteA wizard did it.
ReplyDeleteIt would be considerably less funny if they had looked it up, sort of defeats the point of mockery.
ReplyDeleteIs it possible they meant after a road loss in a domed stadium, where the loss occurred in a dome? I'd like to see those numbers.
ReplyDelete