Thursday, December 16, 2010

Being There With Greinke

Russian Diplomat: "Tell me, Mr. Gardiner, do you by any chance know Krylov's fables? I ask this because there is something, there is something Krylovian about you."
Chauncey Gardiner: "Do you think so? Do you think so?"
Russian Diplomat (with a pleased smile): So you know Krylov?
(He leans forward to say a few words in Russian. Chauncey Gardiner laughs knowingly).
Russian Diplomat (happily): So you know Krylov in Russian, do you?
-- Being There

* * *

I have written about Zack Greinke many times, for many years, and there's one thing I can say without even the slightest doubt: I have no idea what's going on in his head. Of course, you never really know what's going on in anybody's head, and that often includes your own. But with Greinke ... I feel confident in saying that I'm not even close.



This hasn't changed now that Greinke has become America's most wanted pitcher. When Cliff Lee shocked everyone by signing with Philadelphia rather than New York or Texas -- giving the Phillies what is potentially one of the greatest four man rotations in baseball history -- Zack Greinke suddenly moved to the head of the line. He isn't just the best pitcher who might be on the market (the Royals appear open to dealing with him) he is probably the only potential No. 1 who is not tied down with Gulliver ropes. America's Most Wanted Pitcher just turned 27 years old, and he has a mid-90s fastball, a devastating slider, an often tantalizing slow curve and a sometimes baffling change-up. He has won a Cy Young Award. Ever since being moved back into the starting rotation toward the end of the 2007 season he has thrown almost 700 innings and he has a 3.17 ERA, and a 637-to-162 strikeout to walk.

But with Zack Greinke, as you no doubt know, there's always more to consider.

The first time I became aware of Zack's, um, unique nature was when he was still a minor leaguer. He was brought to Kansas City to accept his award as the team's minor league pitcher of the year. I had interviewed him a few times by then, and the conversations were never exactly free-flowing, but they were genial enough, and in general he seemed like an offbeat but fairly typical 19-year-old athlete, confident but awkward, friendly enough but suspicious, the whole thing.

His trip to Kansas City included a team-mandated tour of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. All of the Royals prospects invited to Kansas City went on the tour -- there were probably 10 or 15 players. Buck O'Neil led the tour, told a couple of stories, and so on. And what I remember is that Greinke seemed more obviously moved by the museum than anyone else. He seemed to stop at every picture and wordlessly study it for a few beats longer than anyone else. Over time, the tour moved ahead, but Greinke never tried to catch up. He stayed back. He took it all in. Or anyway, that's how it looked to me.

"Excuse me Zack," a television reporter began. "Can we get a few minutes?"

"Um," Greinke said, and he looked up at the ceiling. "No. This is not a good time. I don't really feel like it ..."

*I should say here that almost every Zack Greinke sentence ends with ellipses. He doesn't finish sentences so much as he lets them drift off, like projects he intends to complete at some undisclosed later date. This can take some getting used to, though I do think that after a while the fade-out sentences become one of his many charms.

The reporter was not quite sure what he meant by "This is not a good time." She was under the impression that the Minor Leaguers were there to see the museum AND talk to the media -- all of the other players and media types seemed to be under the same impression. She asked him when he would be willing to talk. He stared at the ceiling for a few seconds and then said 10 minutes. And so she went away, he looked a bit longer at the Negro Leagues photographs and baseballs and displays. She came back to him about 10 minutes later, asked again if he could talk. He said OK and they did the interview.

Now ... what was that? Everybody around seemed to have a different opinion at the time. Some thought he was messing with the reporter. Some thought he was lost in thought the first time she asked and needed to regain himself. Some thought he was so caught up in emotion as he thought about those Negro Leagues players who never got a chance to play in the Major Leagues that he wanted to spend a bit more time thinking about them. Some thought he needed to psyche himself up to do the interview. Some thought he was hoping that he would postpone for 10 minutes and the reporter would forget to come back.

But here's what strikes me: While nobody seemed to believe the same thing ... everyone was SURE they were right. This was one of Zack Greinke's great talents from the start: He gives people the impression that they get him. Scouts get him. Reporters get him. Fans get him. Managers get him. Teammates get him. Even now, all these years later, I have no idea why Zack did that weird 10-minute thing, just like I have no idea why Zack has done just about anything. My guess now is that the right answer, if there is a right answer, may very well be none of the guesses. But that did not stop people then or ever again from feeling certain that they understand Zack in some cosmic way, they know where he is coming from, know what troubles him, what inspires him, what motivates him.

Chauncey Gardiner from the movie "Being There" was the simple gardner of a rich man who wandered into the world and found people eager to infuse their own hopes and ideas and thoughts into his childlike words. Greinke is not simple, and his words are not childlike, but here he is, America's Most Wanted Pitcher, and everybody seems to know what he wants, where he'd succeed, where he'd fail. So you know Krylov in Russian, do you? Some may be right. Some certainly are wrong. But if there's one thing I have learned about Zack Greinke that I feel confident in saying it is this: Nobody really knows.

* * *

Royals GM Allard Baird (out loud): "Hey, I hear there's supposed to be some hotshot young pitcher out here."
Zack Greinke (standing on the mound and staring at the ground): "Yeah. And you're going to be impressed."
-- First day of spring training, 2003

When Zack Greinke walked away from baseball during spring training 2006, nobody really understood it. Greinke certainly didn't understand it. He would say that every day felt like a gray day. That was the closest thing to an explanation. Of course many people -- me included -- wanted to pin some of Greinke's depression and anxiety on his miserable 2005 season. Oh, it was miserable. Greinke had gone 5-17 with a 5.80 ERA as a 21-year-old pitcher. It was staggering and awful to watch. One day in Arizona, Royals manager Buddy Bell left him out there for 4 1/3 torturous innings -- he allowed 15 hits and 11 runs and at some point it seemed that by leaving Greinke out there Bell was breaking laws of the Geneva Convention.

Greinke had never failed as a pitcher before. He had never even liked pitching -- he liked to hit, liked to play every day, liked to golf and so on. But, as a pitching talent, well, he was too big to fail. He pitched one year in high school, his senior year, and he was the Gatorade National High School Pitcher of the Year. He had an 0.55 ERA and a 118-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The things about pitching that seemed difficult to other kids -- commanding pitches, repeating delivery, throwing strikes to both sides of the plate -- came so easily to him that he did not understand why it was a big deal. Truth is: He did not think it WAS a big deal. The Royals made him the sixth pick in the draft though about half of the Royals decision makers were apprehensive about something in Greinke's makeup (something they had a hard time putting into words, of course) and preferred another high school phenom named Prince Fielder. Greinke's natural talent for pitching won out.

The minor leagues were not much harder for Greinke than high school baseball had been. He made 14 starts in High A Ball when he was 19 years old and he went 11-1 with a 1.14 ERA. He moved up to Class AA and more than held his own. He was just about unanimously considered the best pitching prospect in baseball. I saw him pitch in the 2003 Futures game -- a typically great collection of talent that included Joe Mauer, Kevin Youkilis and Grady Sizemore -- and several pitchers topped 100 mph on the Chicago radar gun that day. Greinke wandered out, looked frail, and never threw a single pitch harder than 92. This is a prospect? Only, he sliced and diced hitters -- he threw a perfect inning with two strikeouts. His recap afterward was both odd and mysterious: "It was just kind of crazy," he said. "I mean I don't know how, but it's like everything I threw just kept going over the plate ... and it didn't just go over the plate, but it went over the corners."

At 20, he came up to the big leagues and posted a 120 ERA+ in 145 innings and was named the Royals pitcher of the year. To watch him pitch then was probably as close as I will get to watching a pitching prodigy. I don't mean he was good -- he WAS good much of the time. But he was so different. He was utterly unlike any young pitcher I'd seen. He seemed to throw his fastball different speeds every time. Sometimes I would just write down the MPH numbers on a piece of paper and look at them -- 89, 83, 88, 84, 91, 88, 90, 86 -- the way Russell Crowe stared at numbers in "A Beautiful Mind." He mixed in a 55-mph curveball that once left Jim Thome standing in the rain. He once caught both Bernie Williams and the home plate umpire by surprise with a quick pitch. His fastball topped out in the low-90s then, he often pitched in the high-80s and when asked if he could throw harder, he responded with a nod. He could throw much harder. Why didn't he? Simple. He did not want to throw harder.

If he threw harder, he seemed to be saying, the ball might not just go magically over the corners. It was like Zen.

Yes, he was different, right from the start, and then came his disastrous 2005 season when for the first time hitters battered him around. The Royals felt like it was good for him go through failure, for him to learn how to deal with it, I feel sure that's why Buddy Bell left him out there to drown in Arizona. "(Zack's) a smart kid," Bell said after the game. "Sometimes that might get in the way." Others didn't think Zack's problem was being too smart -- they had different views. Some thought stubbornness. Some thought the Royals' misery -- they lost 106 games that year -- affected Greinke Some thought he was bored by baseball -- and there was some pretty solid evidence backing up that theory. Brian Anderson, who was Greinke's teammate that year, remembered that once Greinke announced in the dugout that the next inning he intended to throw a 50-mph curveball. The next inning, he threw a curveball, and Anderson hopped to the top step to see the radar reading. Exactly 50 mph. It was like he was inventing little challenges for himself just to keep the game interesting, like someone who cannot watch a horse race without having a bet on it.

Then, spring of 2006, he walked away from baseball. Talked about being a golf pro. Talked about coming back as a hitter. And I know I wasn't the only one who thought his miserable experience as a pitcher in 2005 was as big a reason as any why he walked away from the game in spring training 2006. I was as sure as everyone else.

But ... Greinke says that isn't right. Close friends say that isn't right. While his 2005 pitching experience was certainly no fun, they say it was life away from the field that was wearing on him. As one doctor explained, just about the ONLY time Greinke felt at ease was when he was on the mound pitching. Social anxiety is a tough diagnosis, and there are many varieties, and those varieties affect people many ways -- ways that they often cannot put into words themselves.

In his six weeks away from baseball, Greinke began taking medication. He began to feel more comfortable about things. He will tell you that he's still not a social person. He will not feel all that comfortable in crowds or when people want things from him. But much of the gray lifted. He came back to the game as a reliever and began to love pitching again. He started to throw 96 and 97 and 98 mph. He enjoyed the speed. And, in pretty quick sequence, he became a good pitcher, then a great pitcher, then a Cy Young Award winner, then America's Most Wanted Pitcher.

* * *
@EloquentGlamour: "Tougher" pitchers have failed in New York. No way it happens and I think it's smart not to acquire (Greinke).
@RyPThomas: "Isn't Greinke's psyche, like, the antithesis of what a NYY needs to succeed?"
@CJZero: "Greinke won't survive in New York if he couldn't deal with KC."
@SpudChapp: "Greinke is not suited for NY, unless we get his therapist as well."

-- Twitter Feed

I have written about Zack Greinke many times over many years, and other than my statement above (I have no idea what's going on Greinke's head) there's almost nothing I can say about the guy with any real conviction. Well, there's is one other thing I can say: Zack Greinke hates the losing.

For some reason, people rarely seem to realize this. People think because Greinke does not feel comfortable around crowds -- he has said a couple of time that being on the cover of SI was awful because it encourages more autograph seekers -- that he somehow lacks confidence or aggressiveness or competitiveness. No. The guy has those three things in bulk. He knows that he's a great pitcher. He never backs off. And he HATES losing.

It's startling to me that people keep missing this. Well, maybe it isn't startling. I suppose that when you hear someone walked away from baseball, it's natural to assume certain things. I suppose when you hear someone takes medication to deal with social anxiety it's natural to assume certain things. But, as my old science teacher first told me, as he wrote the word "assume" on the chalkboard, you know what you do when you assume ...*

*You have no doubt heard the "assume" wordplay: "When you assume, you make an ass out of u and me."

Greinke craves pressure. I have seen it. I have listened to him talk about it. He craves big games. He hasn't had many. You could make an argument that he hasn't had ANY. I remember in 2006 when he came back to baseball, he was sent down to Class AA Wichita to be a reliever and to get his head together. And he found that he LOVED it. Yes, it was partly because he liked the bullpen (where he could pitch more often) and it was partly because he was on his medication and no longer felt quite so gray. But perhaps the biggest part of it was that the Wichita team was good. They were in a pennant race. The games mattered. When the Royals wanted to call him up to pitch for a third straight 100-loss team, Greinke found that he really wanted to stay in Wichita, where the action was happening.

Throughout his career, he has been at his best in April (before the Royals fall out of contention) and in September (when he can feel the season coming to an end). He probably deserved to start the 2009 All-Star Game, at least based on the way he pitched in the first half, but instead Roy Halladay started. Greinke pitched the fourth inning. He threw 10 pitches, eight strikes, and got a foul pop-up and two strikeouts. Absurdly small sample size? You betcha. But when you pitch for the Royals, and you are trying to find meaningful moments, there aren't any big sample sizes.

I don't know how Zack Greinke would do in New York or Chicago or any other big market. How could I know? But when I see people question his toughness or his psyche -- either in direct words on Twitter or, infinitely more annoying, in read-between-the-lines quotes and stories -- I guess they don't know him any better than I do. If I had to pick the hardest place in baseball for Zack Greinke to pitch it would be ... in Kansas City, with a dreadful defense behind him, with little run support, with little hope of contending now or anytime soon. I would guess that's why Greinke last year, after playing the good soldier for so long (and signing a club-friendly contract), came out and said he didn't want to go through another youth movement. He's been through enough youth movements.

And, if we're just talking guesses anyway, well, while many people would bet on him not being able to handle New York, I'd bet the other way. Sure, there's more media in New York -- but there are also strict guidelines (and Greinke would undoubtedly maintain his "I don't talk except on gameday" stance; he certainly is not shy about saying "No" to media types -- remember he refused to pose for the Sports Illustrated cover). While New York is a much bigger city with many challenges, well, let's face it, there are certainly ways for multi-multi millionaires to weave around those (and anyway Kansas City and other places its size can be much more like fishbowls than big cities with countless big stars like New York). And when people ask me how Greinke would respond to being booed when he struggles ... well, one more time, I don't know, but I'd GUESS he'd handle that better than just about anyone in baseball. I don't think he cares about that stuff at all. This is a guy who once said that fans cheering him madly in the midst of a good game was "kind of annoying."

That's not to say that Greinke would like New York or even be willing to play there. I don't know that. The Yankees seem (publicly anyway) to be looking elsewhere which could mean that they have been alerted that Greinke won't come there. It also could mean they don't have -- or don't want to give up -- the prospects necessary to pry Greinke away. It also could mean that they have their own opinions about how Greinke would pitch in New York. And, of course, it also could be a bluff.

I also think it's possible that the New York Yankees -- with all of their money, their background checks, their good scouting and everything else -- don't know Greinke any better than anyone else.

* * *

A couple of years ago, I wrote a long story about Zack Greinke for The Kansas City Star -- probably the longest of all the stories I'd written about him. After it came out, Greinke approached me and told me a story. He said his girlfriend, now his wife, had called to tell him about the story. He was in the car at the time, and he asked her to read it to him. He had a 45 minute drive somewhere and was looking to kill the time. He said she started reading him ... and she finished the story 45 minutes later, just as his drive had come to an end.

"That was a long story," he said by way of conclusion.

"Yeah," I said, "It's probably the longest story I ever wrote about you."

"It was like a book," he added.

"Well, I hope you liked it."

He smiled then, his classic Greinke style, and he looked up at the ceiling, and he said: "It was like a book." Then he walked off, and to this day I have no idea what he meant.

68 comments:

  1. Joe, maybe you can give us some insight - other than "well, of course it's the Royals" - why on earth KC would be looking to trade Greinke?

    He's a Cy Young winner, the only thing they have by way of an ace, and he's cost-controlled for the next two seasons...So, why?

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  2. Joe, can you please write a post about how you write a story? I try to imagine sketching the outline for this post, or searching notes and previous posts and stories for details and statistics. Then I think it is more of a story bubble chart with lines of thought connected and then erased and redrawn to organize thoughts. Then I allow myself to think of an accomplished, experienced writer who thinks the story through in his mind, asking and answering questions to himself and then sitting at the keyboard and composing, nearly complete, the whole thing. Then I think that is just too daunting, not to mention too time consuming for all of these options so it must be some other more efficient, more beautiful method. But what?
    How does it work that you create this from whole cloth, apparently, while still working, traveling, husbanding and fathering, sleeping(?) and the rest?

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  3. Joe, you do portraits better than anyone I've ever read. It's sort of sad that whenever anyone dies I check here to see if you've written about them, but this story (and the amazing Tony Pena story) show that any occasion can inspire you to write a poignant, funny, insightful profile. Thanks!

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  4. McKingford, I have the same question. The rebuilding process involves acquiring prospects through trades and the draft, but it also requires the assembly of a core of quality players at the ML level. Are the Royals looking to trade Greinke because they believe they don't have a solid core right now, so they are going to start the rebuilding process all over?

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  5. What an enigma.

    I share your opinion that he thrives under pressure. Going back to his Cy Young year in 2009, it seemed like every time he got a runner in scoring position he took it to another level. I don't remember his stats, but they were insanely good with RISP.

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  6. Make no mistake - the Royals have no reliable major league core outside of Greinke (one of the best in baseball, but only when motivated) and Butler (who is only a slightly above-average offensive first baseman).

    That's it.

    They believe the talent is there in the farm system, but they won't be here until 2012 and won't be established until 2014-2015.

    That's a long time.

    So Greinke is on the market because his value (in terms of talent and contract) is HUGE and there are no longer any comparable options available. They are hoping the supply/demand is far enough in their favor that they will eventually receive an offer they can't refuse. Also, I think they fear that another year of non-contention could mean another ho-hum statistical output from Greinke. That, along with one less year of affordability, would make his value considerably lower next off-season.

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  7. Thanks Joe. Great way to start the morning. Never get tired of you writing about Zach. He does seem to be the prototype enigma.

    I hope the Royals don't trade him. He's the ONLY reason to watch the Royals now. Plus, I can't help but feel no matter who they get for him, it'll turn out to be another Saberhagen trade.

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  8. Joe,

    Thanks for not predicting that Greinke will stay (yes, I'm still holding your prediction about Roy Williams against you. Sorry about that).

    For me, Greinke has just about entered that Mike Sweeney zone where I hope he gets traded because he's too good to spend the rest of his career stuck with the Royals. I'd just like his new home not to be the Yankees.

    The Twins, on the other hand, are usually in a playoff race...

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  9. I wish the Royals could "loan" Greinke to another team, kinda like what's done in soccer. Retain the rights to him but let him pitch for a competitive team next year with specific conditions about pitch/inning counts.

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  10. GregTamblyn-
    Not that the Royals got anything good for him, but I think a lot of people forget how ineffective/injured Sabes was for the rest of his career.

    Again, the Royals absolutely didn't "win" that trade, but it wasn't a resounding victory for the Mets either. Sabes only started 74 games in 4 years with New York.

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  11. I think Zack would thrive in the Bronx. Although there's obviously a lot of media following the team Zack would not be expected to be the public face of a team that has Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera, and Sabathia.

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  12. Another great post. I like the simple acknowledgment that no one KNOWS how Greinke would pitch in New York, or anywhere else. Too many people believe they have a firm grasp of the situation and complete knowledge of how things would play out. I'd rather have him in Kansas City than New York or Boston, because I'm tired of seeing so many great players going to those teams, but I hope Zack gets to compete for some pennants before too long, one place or another.

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  13. I keep thinking how back in 1997 there was really only one reason to watch the Minnesota Twins, and that was for their All-World shortstop Chuck Knoblauch.

    But Knoblauch was miserable, he wanted to win, and he started making it clear he wanted out. Actually, he made it more than clear which is a difference between him and Greinke.

    As so often happens when a top-flight player is on the market, it was the Yankees who got him. The Twins did well in the trade, acquiring two of the building blocks that, when mixed with a "golden generation" of talent coming up in their farm system, led to 3 straight division titles starting in 2002.

    I think most people remember what happened to Knoblauch. Not saying it would happen to Greinke, just saying it is an interesting parallel.

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  14. I wonder if one of the reasons KC is open to dealing Greinke, in addition to the best-asset theory, is that because they don't understand him, on some level they fear he's going to 'crack' somehow and no longer be able to perform. So they want to cash him in now while he's still visibly an asset.

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  15. "...he really wanted to stay in Wichita, where the action was happening" - ZG

    "ugh" - fans of KCR

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  16. Joe,
    Thanks for a great article. Today it is my birthday, it is raining, I am on vacation and this article fits today perfectly

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  17. Joe always writes interesting stuff, but to tell the truth, I'm more interested in how the Royals can turn a Greinke trade into one that produces a division winner. It seems obvious the Royals should trade him. He is a fragile commodity whose value it apparently at the highest point ever. Let's pull the trigger on a great trade and move on. He would probably do fine in New York, and it will be interesting to watch, but it is more important to get some great young players for him.

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  18. Dayton Moore has said that they are not set on trading Greinke; they will only trade if they huge value in return. Moore considers it a win-win situation, in that if they don't get offered what they want, the Royals can keep Greinke and see what happens come the next trade deadline.

    JJSKCK--while Sabes had more injury problems after he left, he did have at least two more Cy Young/All-Star level seasons: one in NY in one of the strike-shortened seasons, I think '94; the other in Boston in '98.

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  19. He's definitely an interesting character. I wonder how much of it is an act?

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  20. Joe, I think he meant it was like a book. I could be wrong though.

    Zack, bubula , listen to me kiddo -- Im crazier than you'll ever be -- NYC is the place to be.

    Everyone here has some form of social disorder.

    No one in NYC talks to each other. You wont have to say a word to anyone! Trust me.

    Anyone doubt me? Take a ride on a subway car -- its the definition of collective social anxiety. Walk down any Avenue you like -- watch how stragers interract with each other. They dont.

    The other day I saw the strangest thing. Two New Yorkers walking their little undersized dogs (it isnt practical to have a big dog in a tiny Manhattan apartment), the two dogs see each other , start playing with each other, jumping around, like long lost friends. Funny part was, to me , the entire time the dogs are playing with each other , the humans holding the leashes didnt say a word. They didnt even acknowledge each others presence! And when the dogs were done playing with each other , everyone parted ways. In silence.

    The moral to the story is , despite the high society BS , most dogs have better social skills than people living in Manhattan.

    Zack was made for this place. See, in NYC nobody knows who is a somebody , they could be anybody, and thats the way everybody likes it. Keeps everyone real careful.

    NYC is one big giant lovable exotic electric energizing social disorder -- he'll bleepin love it.

    And, I dont like the way the New York Media has been dismissive of Greinke. Its the condescending , know it all , one sentence dismissal:

    "He cant handle New York." Whats there to handle? There is only one thing tough to handle in NYC -- the rent -- and I dont think he'll have a problem managing.

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  21. G Young, Knoblauch made 13 appearances at SS in his entire career, only 2 of the starts.
    He was a 2B for the Twins.

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  22. Yeah, I noticed that after I posted. Major brain fart.

    I bet he could have made the throw to first from SS...

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  23. I don't know how anyone could look at someone that worked through a social phobia and came back to pitch in the major leagues with tremendous success and call that person weak-willed, or say that they don't have the psyche to pitch in a big market. I'm sure that getting through that process was much tougher, mentally, than pitching for the Yankees in a pennant race, and I'm sure that he's all the stronger for it.

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  24. Free Zack Greinke! I know a club in Boston that would love to have him.

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  25. Being There... Completely underrated movie!

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  26. I'm pretty sure when Greinke said it was like a book you said thank you. So the only way to take it is as a compliment.

    I like to watch...baseball.

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  27. The way Joe Posnanski captures people in his writings is what makes him "The Joe Posnanski".

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  28. He's young, he's immature and he's just trying to find his way in this world. He probably doesn't have much of a personality either.

    I run into a lot of people who don't know what to say at all when asked a question. A lot of young people play video games or are on the computer all the time and they don't know how to socialize.

    Zack fits in with a lot of the above, only he's a baseball talent.

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  29. Nathan - good catch. I forgot about his 1994 season, probably because I was trying to forget about the 1994 season period.

    14-4, 2.74, 143:13 K:BB, 153 ERA+ and finished 3rd in Cy Young voting (and he should have been 2nd to Maddux; somehow Ken Hill sneaked in there).

    And as you mention, he was pretty good pitching on fumes in 1998 for Boston: 15-8, 3.96, 119 ERA+.

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  30. "you never really know what's going on in anybody's head, and that often includes your own."

    So true. And as a corollary "the stronger you feel about your opinions, the less likely you are to have objective data to back them up". As a society, we love to go around pretending we have the slightest clue what's going on. It's almost all crap. Even Zack has no clue how he would do in NYC.

    And yes, I'm as guilty about this as anybody.

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  31. I had this radical thought the other day. Instead of trading Greinke, the Royals should try and extend him. Their logic for trading him is that his contract expires in two years, and, at best, the Royals are going to start to improve sometime in the 2012 season and may be able to contend in 2013, when Greinke, presumably, will be gone.

    I would go to him and offer to tear up his current contract and sign him to a 4 year deal with some option years at the end. I'm thinking about $18 million per year. That is a raise for the next two years, but probably less than he can sign for per year at the end of the two remaining years on his current contract.

    The options would automatically vest on certain conditions at a high salary, like the average of the 5 highest paid pitchers. They could vest for achieving personal goals (Cy Youngs, innings pitched, wins, strikeouts, etc...). They would also vest based on the Royals winning. For example, 1st option year vests if Royals make the playoffs twice in the four years. Two option years vest if Royals make the World Series in any of the four years. Option year 1 vests if Royals win a playoff series in the last two years of the deal (when they are supposed to be good). Both option years vest if Royals win two playoff series in final two years of the contract.

    The idea here is Zack gets a raise for the next two years, but is a (relative) bargain the last two years. If the Royals succeed, which they are more likely to do with him on the team, Zack sticks around a couple extra years at market rates.

    It also benefits the Royals currently because he is the only Royal people pay to see. Extending him also shows the Royals truly believe they will put a winner on the field after the 2011 season, which keeps the ever faithful Royals fans at least partially engaged.

    The Royals can feel free to execute on this plan and claim it as there own. My reward will be relevant games after opening day, like when I was growing up.

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  32. I'd cheer heartily for him if he becomes a Yankee and pitches at The K (just him though). To sit anywhere near the plate and watch him pitch is nothing short of amazing...and I don't care much for pitching duels. Thankfully for me KC's offense, oh wait, please don't go Zack!

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  33. Echoing tarhoosier and Ryan. Great job, Joe.

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  34. Perhaps JJSKCK was refering to the outstanding David Cone for Ed Hearn trade?

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  35. gsports4, don't forget they got Rick Anderson and Goose Gozzo in that deal as well. LOL!

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  36. I just heard that Phillie wants him....Do they have any prospects left to deal? Seriously, Zack has been a joy to watch perform in Royal Blue. It will be a sad day when he goes. I hope he gets to pitch post season somewhere, sometime.

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  37. I am in the minority of people that think that Zack will be here through this year. I know David Glass is taking the payroll back down, and there has been rumors that the value of the team has gotten high enough that he is looking to sell, but unless they make a nationally recognized blockbuster good trade, attendance will suffer mightily. (It is over 17% higher in games that he starts in the last 2 years)

    I think they will wait until next year, when some of the alleged phenoms have come up and started to excite fans.

    I also worry about Dayton's ability to get value out of the trade. His MLB level track record on trades is at best, sketchy. (and I am being kind)

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  38. It's been all of 4 years since his "episode," and he's "tired of all the losing"? He's 27 years old. How does he think Bob Feller felt, or Steve Carlton, or anybody else who spent so many years on losing teams? When he's 35 he'll have been a good soldier. Now he just seems impatient and frankly, a little ungrateful.

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  39. Wonderful writing, Joe. And Baseball Fans out there, this coming season, when you have the opportunity to watch Greinke tossing pitches nasty as can be, or Pujols blasting yet another homer, or the sweet, sweet swing of Joe Mauer...take your time...enjoy every minute of it...savor it. It's all too soon gone. Oh, and while you're savoring...read a Joe Posnanski blog or two...Totally sweet.

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  40. Thank you for a wonderful heartwarming piece.

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  41. This weblog is being featured in Five Star Friday!
    http://www.schmutzie.com/fivestarfriday/2010/12/17/five-star-fridays-131st-edition-is-brought-to-you-by-wh-aude.html

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  42. @Sports injuries - That's a great thought and all, but Zack said last year that he won't sign a new deal with the Royals unless they start winning.

    A few people have made mention, but the Royals are not actively trying to trade Greinke. They are listening to offers, but won't make a deal unless they are blown away. Supposedly the Rangers have been complaining that the Royals are asking the moon for Greinke (which they should be).

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  43. @Sports injuries - It's against baseball's collective bargaining agreement for option years and incentives to be based on most counting stats, such as wins and strikeouts. It's also agains tthe CBA for the options and incentives to be based on team performance.

    The only things that can be used for options and incentives are things related to playing time (games started, total games, games finished, innings pitched, at bats, plate appearances, etc.) and awards (all-star appearances, Cy Young placement, MVP placement, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, etc.).

    You can't give someone money or kick-in an option year based on wins, saves, ERA, HR, runs, RBI, AVG, SLG, OBP, OPS, or pretty much any other traditional counting stat.

    If they want to lock up Grienke long-term, they're going to need to give him something in the basic range of what Lee just got, maybe a bit less. Something like 5/$100M, with a 6th year club option for another $20M and a $5M buyout. That's $21M/year guaranteed over 5 years and up to another $15M if they want him in the 6th year.

    I'm not so sure I'd do that after the year he had last season. I'd probably do exactly what they are doing now - wait for an overwhelming offer and if nothing comes, see how he bounces back this year. If he's great again, look to lock him up (unless that overwhelming offer comes in). If not, you've still got another year of him, he might be able to be dealt at the deadline, and if not, there's always 2 good draft picks coming.

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  44. Sports Injuries, I like your thinking! Even with that contract, if Zach performs like he's capable, the Royals can still move him for minor parts.

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  45. Moti @ 7:53 PM wrote "How does he think Bob Feller felt, or Steve Carlton, or anybody else who spent so many years on losing teams? "

    Bob Feller pitched on exactly two losing teams in his career (1941 and 1946).

    During Steve Carlton's Phillies career (1972-85), they had nine winning seasons, four losing seasons, and one .500 season. As a Cardinal, his team had a winning record five of his six seasons.

    Get your facts right before making disparaging comments.

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  46. Now Hugh Mulcahy, he pitched on a lot of losing teams. (if you remember his nickname, you'll get the joke)

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  47. Wait- he wants to hit? How about a Royal come to Atlanta, it would be a neat change for both clubs.

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  48. Wow, what a great article, my dream is for him to head up the cincinnati reds rotation... I'll just keep dreaming..

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  49. He'd be a great fit for the Rockies. Low media pressure and the games all really matter. Not to mention the environment is very challenging for a pitcher. Too bad his price may be too high for an already depleted farm system.

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  50. Reading this piece, I don't imagine "media pressure" is something that would really bother him. I get the feeling he wouldn't really care what the NY Post has to say about him.

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  51. David Glass has played the people of Kansas City for fools. Once he suckered the people of KC to approve the funds for the improved stadium, he knew the value of his investment would only go up regardless if they ever win another game, much less make the playoffs. Trading Zach right now tells everyone you have no hope of a decent team for the next couple of years.

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  52. It has probably already been said many times in many places - mental health issues are just as real as physical injuries, but they are harder to diagnose and treat. Instead of being mocked for his Social Anxiety Disorder, Grienke should be praised for being able to manage it as well as he has.

    I have Social Anxiety Disorder, among other things, and I wouldn't wish one of my bad spells on even the most obnoxious and hateful of mockers.

    Here's the best description I've heard yet of an anxiety attack: you know that feeling, when you lean back too far in your chair, but you catch yourself just in time? Imagine that, coming out of (seemingly) nowhere, and lasting for hours, or days. Now make fun of Zach Greinke and his issues. Not so funny, is it?

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  53. Anonymous said...

    "Here's the best description I've heard yet of an anxiety attack: you know that feeling, when you lean back too far in your chair, but you catch yourself just in time? Imagine that, coming out of (seemingly) nowhere, and lasting for hours, or days."

    --Well, there goes my idea of giving Zack Greinke a rocking chair for Christmas.

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  54. My only concern about Greinke in New York isn't about him being too "weak" or "caving under pressure" or anything of the sort. My concern would be with the media. There's just such a media presence here about every little thing the players do, and if Greinke came here after missing out on Lee, he'd be expected to be "the guy" and he'd have to deal with the constant questions. Can he handle that? Quite possibly, but I'm not sure. And I could see him being unhappy in New York as a result, which I would be concerned about him taking that out to the mound.

    I'm a Yankee fan and I wouldn't mind trading for Greinke and giving it a shot. The problem is, I don't want to take the chance by trading away the prospects it would likely take to get him, specifically Jesus Montero. If they could get him for a package of Romine, one of the "Killer B's" (Banuelos, Betances, Brackman...or perhaps both Betances and Brackman but not Banuelos) and one or two other solid but a bit less than that prospects, I'd be all over that, but I don't think KC will go for that unless it's the best offer.

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  55. He will be missed. As a lifelong Royals fan and former resident of Columbia, Missouri, all I can hope now is that he throws 5 perfect games against the Cardinals in 2011. Best of luck, Greink.

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  56. Possibly the biggest Brewers-Royals deal since Darrell Porter and Jim Colborn went to KC and Jamie Quirk, Jim Wohlford and Bob McClure went to the Beer City.

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  57. Turns out the only way KC could unload Yuniesky Betancourt was by throwing in Greinke in too.

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  58. As someone who has struggled with social anxiety for most of my life, I had sort of taken Greinke in as one of my personal heroes.

    I agree with the person who posted, "I don't know how anyone could look at someone that worked through a social phobia and came back to pitch in the major leagues with tremendous success and call that person weak-willed."

    He has worked through his issues with social anxiety admirably, and has still managed to revitalize his baseball career and get a wife (the latter often being just as difficult to accomplish for someone with social anxiety as being a successful major league pitcher). Honestly, when I need to find an example for encouragement, I look toward his success in all facets of life.

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  59. Hands down the greatest article I have ever read about Grienke or any MLB Player or even any athlete in America these days! Just a great story!

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  60. So which Royals will Joe blog about incessantly now that Greinke and Yuni are Milwaukee-bound?

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  61. I had to break the news to my 8 year old today, who doesn't know or care a damn thing about the business of baseball. He was crushed. I never had to deal with that as a young baseball fan (George Brett stayed with KC his entire career).

    Sometimes, well most times, it sucks being a Royals fan. Unfortunately my son learned that lesson today as well. And that's just not fair for an 8 year old.

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  62. "And everyone knows when you make an assumption, you make an ass out of you and umption."

    Just needed to be said.

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  63. Should be interesting for us in Milwaukee. This was very interesting, and more in depth than the SI article.

    I'd love to see him pitch in some pressure games next October and November.

    eddiemathews

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  64. Very interesting. I've never really read in depth about Grienke's personality before.

    It struck a chord with me because it describes my son, who I do not understand (you know what I mean). The smart, athletic kid that would rather do almost anything else than talk about how great he performed. The kid that would dive on asphalt for a ground ball, drill someone on a football field ... but feel awkward is someone said "You hit the s--- out of that one/kid", because the person saying it cussed.

    In my playing days we called guys like this "gorilla with a kitten". The guy whose physical attributes and performance were "beastlike", but whose demeanor was the exact opposite of what one would come to expect. Lots of assumptions were made of these guys .... everything from arrogant, apathetic, to gay.

    Makes ya wonder what Grienke would do for a living if he wasn't dominant at baseball/athletics. My guess, based on what I know, is something that requires constant thought & problem solving, but can be done as an individual. Likewise, those folks often have a lot of erroneous assumptions made of them as well.

    Interesting from a social behavior standpoint, but as far as baseball goes, and amatuer psychology aside, the dude can pitch and pitch well. Starting Pitcher is definitely one position that can handle a guy fitting Greinke's description.

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