Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Hall of Fame: The First Round

Every year, the ballot features a few players who, frankly, look kind of silly on a Hall of Fame ballot. The funny thing about most of these players is that they are probably better than we remember. For instance, last year Todd Zeile was on the Hall of Fame ballot. Todd Zeile? He did not receive a vote, to no one's surprise.

But you know what? Todd Zeile was a good player. He got 2,000 hits in the Major Leagues. He drove in 90-plus runs five times. He played five positions, and even pitched a couple of innings.

He was not a Hall of Famer, not close to a Hall of Famer, but that's precisely the point, isn't it? To play 10 years of Major League Baseball -- a qualification just to get on the ballot -- means you must be one of the very best baseball players on earth .

You are better and more determined than all those players whose baseball lives stopped in little league, all those good enough to make their high school teams but no more, all those who went on to play college at some small school, all those good enough to go to a Division I school but were not drafted, all those promising and resolved young players drafted or signed outside of North America who stalled in the low end of the minor leagues, all those who topped out low Class A, in high Class A, in Class AA, in Class AAA, all those who made it through it all to get to a cup of coffee in the big leagues, all those who worked their way up to a small and temporary role in the big leagues, all those who endured and became regulars in the big leagues for two or three or four years before being retired.

To achieve so much ... to reach the very height of your profession ... it is an extraordinary thing to be a baseball player with 10 years of big league experience, an even more extraordinary thing to achieve enough to get on the Hall of Fame ballot. And then, you get there and it is STILL still miles and miles and miles to go before you get to the Hall of Famers. It is still the gap between Todd Zeile and Cooperstown.

Here are the 12 players on this year's ballot who are clearly not Hall of Famers, but they are worth spending a few minutes remembering:


* * *

-- Carlos Baerga: You know, 200 hits is a fairly rare thing. The last 50 years, it has been done by 110 players. And only 39 of those have done it more than once. Many of the players with more than one 200-hit season -- Puckett, Gwynn, Molitor, Rice, Carew, Brock, Clemente, Billy Williams, Cal Ripken and George Brett -- are already in the Hall of Fame and a few more like Ichiro and Derek Jeter will go someday.

The point is, it felt like something meaningful when Carlos Baerga had back-to-back 200-hit seasons at age 23 and 24. He was the first second baseman in seventy years to have a 200-hit, 20 homer, 100 RBI season, and he did it two years in a row. Only Rogers Hornsby among second basemen had done it two years in a row. Baerga could flat hit a baseball.

Then, he more or less stopped hitting. He had some injury problems. But, more, he seemed to age about 10 years overnight. He hit .314 and was an All-Star in 1996. He hit .271 with an OPS+ of 80 for five teams the rest of his career.

-- Bret Boone: He was one of my favorite people when I wrote columns about the Cincinnati Reds from 1994-96. The Reds got him in a trade from Seattle before the 1994 season, and he responded with what at the time seemed like a career year. He was hitting .320 when the strike hit. He never really hit again in Cincinnati, but he seemed solid enough with the glove (there was a perpetual effort get him rewarded with a Gold Glove, an effort that finally paid off in 1998), and he seemed one of those reliable types who kept teams together through long seasons. He took on more than his share of media responsibility. He could gently -- but convincingly -- talk to teammates who had fallen into a rut. I always thought he was a solid professional, the kind managers like having around.

Then, in 2001, suddenly and absurdly he hit .331/.372/.578 with 206 hits, 37 homers, 118 runs scored and 141 RBIs. Two years later, he hit .294/.366/.535 with 35 homers, 111 runs and 117 RBIs. By Wins Above Replacement, his 2001 season was the greatest for any American League second baseman since World War II. His 2003 season was in the Top 10.

And then, just as suddenly and absurdly, he went back to being unable to hit. He was out of baseball after the 2005 season. The remarkable thing is those two historic seasons ... well, they almost certainly hurt Bret Boone's baseball legacy, if you want to call it that. Before those two years, he was viewed as a try-hard kind of player who could field a bit, hit a bit, help a team. Afterward, well, Boone was mentioned by Jose Canseco as an "obvious" steroid user. Boone has denied it vehemently. I have long stopped trying to guess about such things. What I do think is that Bret Boone's two fabulous seasons don't leave most people with the impression that he was a great player for a couple of years. The opposite, actually.

-- Marquis Grissom: Until I looked it up, I had completely forgotten that Grissom had twice led the league in stolen bases as a young player. I remembered the middle-aged Grissom, a solid player, a good center fielder (he won two Gold Gloves), a pretty good hitter (hit .300 twice) with occasional power (hit 20 homers four times).

But he was actually a rare kind of power and speed player. Only 21 players have stolen 75 bases in a season. Only 10 of them have done it more than once.

And of the players who have stolen 75 or more bases multiple times, only two have also had 20-plus homer years at some point in their careers: Rickey Henderson and Marquis Grissom.

-- Lenny Harris: I remember Lenny Harris too from my days writing about the mid-90s Cincinnati Reds. He was a fine pinch hitter.

-- Bobby Higginson: The thing that stands out for me about Bobby Higginson -- and I admit, this is sad -- is his contract. The Detroit Tigers had some amazing contracts in those days. I remember they gave Damion Easley some kind of absurd contract that paid him more than six million bucks in 2002, when he hit .224 in 85 games. They picked up Jose Lima's contract in 2001and paid him more than $7 million that same year when he went 4-6 with a 7.77 ERA. They paid Dmitri Young something like $35 million for five years of fewer than 500 games.

But the big one was Higginson. He was a good young player. From 1996 to 1998, he posted a 130 OPS+. He was a no-nonsense kind of player, too, the kind of player who was often credited for being a good fielder (he had a very strong arm), the kind of player who didn't shave much. The Tigers felt like he was the future. They signed him to a massive deal that would pay him almost $12 million as a 32-year-old and almost $9 million each as a 33- and 34-year old.

Sadly, he was finished as a player all three of those years. He had injuries, but basically he was done anyway -- he hit .235/.331/.370 over those three years when he raked in about 40 million clams.

Also: He played 11 years and never once played for a team with a winning record.

-- Charles Johnson: He won Gold Gloves his first four years in the big leagues and then, as if everyone at precisely the same time came to the conclusion that he was overrated defensively, he never won another. I've always been amazed how that works. Another ballot member, Benito Santiago, had the same odd Gold Glove pattern.

Johnson really was a marvel throwing out base runners in those early years -- he threw out 48% in 1996 and 47% the next year when the Marlins won the World Series. But he obviously never quite fulfilled those "next Johnny Bench" predictions. Johnson hit well in that World Series, and in 2000 he hit .304/.379/.582 for two clubs with 31 home runs. But in general he was a disappointment as a hitter, and he stopped hitting at all after age 30.

-- Al Leiter: He didn't make it to the big leagues to stay until he was 27, and he had some serious early control problems -- he led the league in walks in 1995 and 1996. He would generally have high walk totals throughout his career because he was trying to get by with a variety of curves and a sinkerball -- there was no percentage in throwing the ball over the plate.

But he would make up for his walks it by allowing only 8.1 hits per nine innings over his career (almost precisely the same as Marichal, Drysdale and Lemon). He knew what worked for him, and he did not give in, and he won 129 games and pitched almost 2,000 innings after he turned 30 which is not in Jamie Moyer's class but it's pretty darned good.

-- Tino Martinez: He knocked in 100-plus RBIs six out of seven years from 1995 to 2001. Even so, he was only SIXTH in total RBIs over those seven years, and he was more than 100 RBIs behind Sammy Sosa. That should tell you how crazy the offense was in those seven years.

-- Raul Mondesi: Do you remember in the early years when people were comparing Mondesi to Roberto Clemente? Why not? He could hit (he hit .306 in 1994 when he won Rookie of the Year, he hit .310 in 1997), he had power (he hit 30 homers three straight years from 1997-99), he had speed (he stole 30 bases three times), he had this preposterously great arm in right field (he won two Gold Gloves, much of it based on his arm). As much as we talk about five-tool players, there really aren't too many who have actually shown all five.

And then, suddenly, one day Mondesi was not viewed as the next Clemente. He was, instead, widely viewed as a bloated underachiever. I was never exactly sure how it happened. I guess he didn't hustle much. And I guess he wasn't much fun to have around. He played for five teams his last three years and was out of baseball at 34.

-- Kirk Reuter: How about Kirk Reuter's career start? He won the first 10 decisions of his career. As a rookie with Montreal he was 8-0 with a 2.73 ERA though it wasn't too hard to see that wasn't going to last. He had only 31 strikeouts in 85 innings. It's hard to win games striking out fewer than four batters per nine innings.

But Reuter found ways throughout his career. He won 130 games while recording an absurdly low 3.84 strikeout per nine innings. In the last 30 years, Only Scott McGregor (3.75 Ks per nine) won more than 100 games striking out that few.

-- Benito Santiago: The throwing-out-base-stealers-from-his-knees trick was pretty cool. It won him three Gold Gloves in his early years along with a Rookie of the Year award. He had two or three pretty good offensive years, including the one year he hit 30 homers in Philadelphia.

-- B.J. Surhoff: He was a perfectly fine player who three times hit .300 and once hit .299 ... and he is one of the few to have played all nine positions in the major leagues. His best year was probably 1999 when he played all 162 games and hit .308 with 28 homers and 107 RBIs. But offense was so out of control in 1999, that none of the three totals even ranked in the league's Top 10.

You probably remember that Surhoff was the first pick of the 1985 draft out of North Carolina. Well, my buddy Chardon Jimmy has a brother who pitched for Ohio U around that time, and he once got to face Surhoff. Needless to say, it did not go well. Surhoff crushed a home run that, according to Jimmy, was still going up when it was last seen. It was a monster homer, the sort of brush with greatness that nobody in the family ever forgets. Whenever Surhoff would show up on television for the next two decades, Jimmy would call his brother and say: "Um, Surhoff is up. I was just thinking: Hey, you faced him. What would you throw him here?"

56 comments:

  1. That's 12 players, not 11. Great post though.

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  2. At the risk of being laughed out of the room, I wonder if everyone is being a bit permature in so quickly dismissing Lenny Harris. I don't know who the last pinch hitter was to make the ballot (VanderWal?), but they provide similar value to NL teams as good setup men. To be able to do it long enough to end up on a HoF Ballot should be an invitation to look at their actual value. Think about how much it does for your chances knowing that you can replace a pitcher-batter with a guy who bats around .270. Something like WXRL, but for pinch hitters?

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  3. Lists like these really make me appreciate those who were able to maintain a high level of play for 15-20 years. Baseball history is LOADED with talented players like Baerga, Mondesi, Richie Sexson, who for whatever reason just couldn't do it anymore once they reached their early 30s. And yet people will scoff at the career numbers of that 38-year-old who hits .270 with 12 homers. They'll be demeaned as "compilers" who just "hung on" or whatever. I think sometimes people forget just how difficult it is to hang on in this game.

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  4. Thoroughly enjoyable romp through the past about players I remember clearly. Surhoff was a class act. Mondesi was one of the worst Yankee signings ever. Kirk Reuter was a very good pitcher who won more than ten games in seven straight seasons. The guy could pitch.

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  5. I would like to see a permanent exhibit in the Hall for guys like Lenny Harris, but there's no way he's a Hall of Famer when it appears a guy like Ted Simmons will never get in.

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  6. @2: People are dismissing Lenny Harris as a *HOF candidate*. Yes, pinch hitters can provide value - just not HOF value; if they did, they would be everyday players, not pinch hitters. You start putting pinch hitters in the Hall, then you have to start putting middle relievers and late inning defensive replacements too.

    And if you do that, then you don't have a Hall of Fame anymore, you just have Baseball Reference...

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  7. I remember watching an Expo game once where Kirk Reuter was pitching, and in about the 4th or 5th inning, Felipe Alou just yanked him - I think he was pitching a shutout at the time, and wasn't in any kind of trouble (nobody on base). After the game, Alou was asked about it and said it was a velocity issue - he knew Reuter didn't have it anymore because he could read the MLB insignia on the ball with every pitch...

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  8. @chartkorrecta78 - in no way is Lenny Harris a candidate to be considered, at least IMO. He might have tyhe most career pinch hits for whatever that's worth, but that doesn't mean he was even a great pinch hitter. He had a career .254 batting average, a .310 OBP% and a .638 OPS% as a pinch hitter.

    Harris should receive 0 HOF votes.

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  9. None of these 12 guys would get a vote from me either, and I'm not sure what debate could really be made for any one of them.

    Tomorrow's column is going to be the interesting one. I wanna see what Poz has to say about a guy like Larry Walker.

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  10. There's just no way to justify inducting Lenny Harris. You're talking about a player who posted an OPS+ of 80 in fewer than 4500 plate appearances and had no defensive value.

    Compare him to Bill Mazeroski, a player inducted into the Hall purely for his defense (and one most people consider a questionable selection at that). Mazeroski, a second baseman with a reputation for not being able to hit AT ALL, put up a higher OPS+ (84) in nearly twice the plate appearances (just over 8400). To deserve a vote, Harris would have needed to provide nearly twice the defensive value of a Mazeroski.

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  11. For some reason, I thought of Robinson Cano while reading the Baerga entry. Sure enough, Baerga has been Cano's most similar player the last 2 years on Baseball-reference.com. Cano's top ten through age 27 also includes Lazzeri, Doerr, and Gordon (HOFers with shortened careers), plus Edgardo Alfonzo, Jose Vidro, and Travis Fryman (good young players who faded early). I know these comps are more a fun toy than a serious predictor, but Cano's list can't help but give one pause.

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  12. I'm not calling Lenny Harris a HoFer, I just think that the ballot always provides a good chance to look back on someone's career and ask how they managed to last so long as to even be on the ballot.

    I don't think any current batting stats accurately reflect the value that pinch hitters provide to NL teams either. Basically, their careers are spent hitting for a pitcher or a very poor hitter late in a game or in a particularly high leverage spot. He doesn't have to have great numbers for this to be valuable, he just needs to be significantly better than the guys he hits for, and Lenny Harris was. I think it'd be interesting (but a lot of work) to see what Lenny Harris did to win probablilities throughout his career.

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  13. The comparison of Mondesi being the next Roberto Clemente was ludicrous from the start. The Dodgers used their publicity hounds to over-promote Mondesi and, in the long run, it probably only hastened his demise. Mondesi was heavy-legged but ran well when he was young. His throwing arm was very strong but his overall outfield skills became average at best over time. As much as anything I think the Clemente comparison was based mostly on the fact that Raul was Hispanic, played rightfield and had a great arm. Raul and his agent no doubt read all of the headlines early in his career when they should have been working to keep off the extra weight. Throughout Clemente's career, Roberto's physique never seemed to change - He treated his body like a temple. In comparison, Mondesi's approach to fitness was abhorent.

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  14. Al Leiter was the best of this group and he's a much better pitcher than his legacy in the main stream. He had a late career peak which kind of hurts his persona. I don't think he's remotely a HOF but he had a better career WAR than 8 HOF pitchers: Chesbro, Hunter, Pennock, Haines, Grimes, Marquard, Sutter and Fingers.

    I think Al Leiter just points out what a joke Jack Morris' HOF candidacy is.

    AL Leiter's Career WAR: 38.8
    Jack Morris Career WAR: 39.3

    So there's a big disconnect in Main Stream BB writers if they think Morris is HOF caliber and Leiter is a Miss by a Mile candidate.

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  15. joe - i started reading the blog last winter when jon miller recommended a post about frank thomas in an interview he gave surrounding his HoF induction. it was a truly thought-provoking piece - i've been hooked ever since - that i am sure many BRs remember as one of the recent best.

    i mention this because it's a little disingenuous to say, re steroids, that "I have long stopped trying to guess about such things". i mean, it wasn't THAT long ago! february i think.

    my point? i'm not sure i have one other than to be the 17 billionth person to point out how complicated the whole steroid thing is. i think everyone will be forever guessing, defending, vilifying, which is just our nature as fans.

    -gray whale

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  16. To Chris McClinch - This is not meant to defend Mazeroski's induction into the HOF but I will defend his reputation as a hitter. Your claim that Maz "had a reputation for not being able to hit AT ALL" is false. Sure, he didn't hit as well as any normal HOF inductee, but he was no "Punch and Judy" embarrassment at the plate. In fact, when the Pirates were not at their best in the 1963-64 period, Maz sometimes batted clean-up. He hit the only HRs that Pittsburgh hit (2) in the 1960 WS and neither was a fluke given that they were hit to left and left-center in old Forbes Field. Again, I'm not claiming that Maz was anywhere close to a feared hitter at anytime in his career, but his offense was much better than you and others often give him credit.

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  17. A few fun facts about these guys: Lenny Harris had a career WAR of -.9. That dash is a negative sign.

    Bobby Higginson had .3 WAR for the '03 Tigers, while earning $11,850,000. If that represented the marginal cost of a win to the Tigers that year, it would have cost them $1.9 billion to win enough games to make the playoffs, even in the weak AL Central.

    Read more at http://replacementlevel.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/hall-of-fame-ballot-part-1/

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  18. My first memory of baseball was sitting along the RF line at Dodger Stadium very close to where Mondesi was positioned. When I was 5 years old I didn't know who Roberto Clemente was, but I knew Raul had one heck of an arm. Watching him throw was always a pleasure for me.

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  20. Baerga's story is a sad one. He had the frame of a guy who was bound to gain weight and his off the field activities, which he's admitted himself, completely undermined a fabulous start to a career. The amazing thing was John Hart understood it before the rest of the league did and spun Baerga to the unknowing Mets for a 32 HR season out of Matt Williams (via Jeff Kent and Julian Tavarez trade) and a very serviceable middle infielder in Jose Vizcaino.

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  21. @chartkorrecta78: "I don't think any current batting stats accurately reflect the value that pinch hitters provide to NL teams either. Basically, their careers are spent hitting for a pitcher or a very poor hitter late in a game or in a particularly high leverage spot. He doesn't have to have great numbers for this to be valuable, he just needs to be significantly better than the guys he hits for, and Lenny Harris was. I think it'd be interesting (but a lot of work) to see what Lenny Harris did to win probablilities throughout his career."

    To that point about NL pinch hitters and them not having to have great numbers, just significantly better numbers than the guys he hits for. Almost ANY position player pinch hitter will be better than the NL pitcher spot. Harris set the record for most piunch hits because he got the most opportunities. He was pegged as an excellent pinch hitter for whatever reason, though the stats I mentioned earlier shows that he was not very good as a pinch hitter at all.

    Here are some more stats as well...

    According to Baseball Reference, Harris appeared in 1133 games as a sub. Now also according to BR, he had 895 games with exactly 1 plate appearance. So for the other 238 games, he must have come in either as a pinch runner, a defensive replacement or ended up with more than 1 PA. Those games are more difficult to research but let's look at the 895 games with 1 PA.

    Harris had a positive WPA in 272 of those 895 games. So in 30.3% of those games, he had some type of positive effect on his team. Is that good?

    Well, I looked at another player who had almost the same amount of games played. Marvin Bernard played in 891 games in his career (4 less than the 895 1 PA games for Harris). Bernard had a postive WPA in 337 of his 891 games...37.8% of games played.

    So Lenny Harris added significantly less WPA as a pinch hitter than the likes of Marvin Bernard overall. Yeah, Harris might have hit better than a pitcher but when matched up to the likes of a Marvin Bernard, he didn't even match up there.

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  22. @chartkorrecta78... If you want to put a great DH into the HOF, how about someone like Rusty Staub, who was an outstanding, underrated player for many years before he became a pinch-hitter in the twilight of his career. He was a borderline HOFer as a regular, and he was as good a PH as there was in the game when he couldn't do it every day any longer.

    But Lenny Harris? Seriously? That's your argument for considering PHs for the HOF?

    Staub as a PH: .277/.356/.402 in 418 PA
    Harris as a PH: .264/.317/.337 in 884 PA

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  23. @chartkorrecta78: There's nothing wrong with risking "being laughed out of the room", though, in this case, it was not so much a risk as a certainty. After the laughter dies down, I do see your point re the value of PHs being less apparent when looking at some stats. In addition, I got to learn more about the career of Rusty Staub (thanks@theklaffer) and his HOF candidacy. So, really, you've achieved a small victory for the PH, though probably not for Lenny Harris in particular.

    -3rdPeriodPoints

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  24. Great example of the perspective that makes Joe so much fun to read.

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  25. The one I'm really looking forward to will be Kevin Brown/Curt Schilling.

    A: 3256.1 IP, 127 ERA+, 64.8 WAR
    B: 3261.0 IP, 128 ERA+, 69.7 WAR

    Schilling will sail in, and Brown will be lucky to see the 2nd year's ballot.

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  26. It's a sin against the Hall -- against humanity, really -- Dan Quisenberry isn't in.

    He may have made it look too easy.

    He was just lucky, I guess. Every time he pitched the other guys didn't hit.

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  27. @ theklaffer...
    I am most defintely NOT arguing to put Lenny Harris in the Hall. I just think players with interesting careers are worth a look. Its also worth noting that many players have commented that pinch-hitting is one of the toughest jobs there is in baseball.

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  28. To Marco:

    I stand by calling Mazeroski an awful hitter. I was aware of his two homers in the 1960 Series, but I chalk that up to anybody being able to do anything in seven games. I have no idea what the team was doing hitting him cleanup in 1963-64, given that over the two-year period he posted an on-base percentage south of .300 and a slugging percentage south of .400. He did post some double-digit home run totals, but he only got his slugging percentage up over .400 a couple of times. You're right that he doesn't look like a punch and judy hitter; instead, he looks like a middle infielder with a little pop but no plan at the plate (career high of 40 walks, career OBP south of .300). He was Alex Gonzalez for an earlier era.

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  29. When do we get to vote on Heathcliff Slocumb?

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  30. Pinch hitting is a tough job, but by the numbers, Lenny Harris didn't even do it successfully. An OPS+ of 80 is an improvement over the average pitcher, but not a significant one.

    Ridiculously overstating his value by assuming that every plate appearance in his career was pinch-hitting for a pitcher, you're still talking about 235 plate appearances a season that shifts the odds of making an out from 80% to 70%. There's just not much real-world value there. Pitchers as a class hit a bit worse than Neifi Perez, but Lenny Harris wasn't that much better of a hitter than Perez.

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  31. @Marco: "The one I'm really looking forward to will be Kevin Brown/Curt Schilling.
    A: 3256.1 IP, 127 ERA+, 64.8 WAR
    B: 3261.0 IP, 128 ERA+, 69.7 WAR
    Schilling will sail in, and Brown will be lucky to see the 2nd year's ballot."

    Now I am no Curt Schilling fan, but you can't list those numbers without noting their postseason numbers as well:

    A. 14 games/13 starts, 5-5, 4.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 81.2 IP
    B. 19 games/19 starts, 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 133.1 IP
    ---and World Series-specific numbers:
    A. 4 starts, 0-3, 6.04 ERA, 1.57 WHIP
    B. 7 starts, 4-1, 2.06 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
    ---and also:
    A. Helped end "The Curse" with a monumental Game 7 choke.
    B. Helped end "The Curse" with a monumental Game 6 vicory, along with being Co-MVP on the 2001 D-Backs (aka he was a huge reason two separate teams won World Series)

    I know in some quarters that postseason numbers are disregarded/de-emphasized because of the "small sample size". But Curt Schilling is one of the greatest postseason pitchers ever and Kevin Brown is a postseason bum. Does that disqualify him from being a HOF'er? Not if he was a lock...but Brown was far from that just based on his regular season numbers as is.

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  32. Can someone with a lot of time on their hands compare Lenny Harris to the average pinch hitter? I mean, compile the stats for every pinch-hit PA for the years that Lenny was in the league and compare the slash lines of them versus Lenny? Because to me, the value of a PH is not that he's better than the pitcher/Rey Ordonez's-of-the-world that he's PH-ing for, it's how much better he is than anyone else available to pinch-hit.

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  34. @stephen: I don't know how to compile stats for all pinch hitters, but in looking at 4 guys known as pinch hitters at points in their career, plus Harris, things don't look so good.

    (these numbers may not be perfect, as they are the stat lines for games appeared in as a Sub according to Baseball Reference; it is possible in some of these games, they came into the game before hitting)

    --Rusty Staub: 471 PA - .276 BA - .365 OBP - .766 OPS
    --Manny Mota: 772 PA - .281 BA - .350 OBP - .693 OPS
    --Milt Thompson: 520 PA - .268 BA - .350 OBP - .712 OPS
    --Marlon Anderson: 423 PA - .264 BA - .325 OBP - .726 OPS
    --Lenny Harris: 1186 PA - .254 BA - .310 OBP - .638 OPS

    Harris is significantly WORSE across the board than all these other pinch hitters. And of course, his career partially overlapped with both Milt Thompson and Marlon Anderson. Interestingly, both Thompson and Anderson stepped up their games as subs, whereas Harris did not...

    --Milt Thompson:
    .06 less in BA as a sub vs. as a starter
    .17 MORE in OBP as a sub vs. as a starter
    .05 MORE in OPS as a sub vs. as a starter
    --Marlon Anderson:
    .01 less in BA as a sub vs. as a starter
    .13 MORE in OBP as a sub vs. as a starter
    .24 MORE in OPS as a sub vs. as a starter
    --Lenny Harris:
    .20 less in BA as a sub vs. as a starter
    .11 less in OBP as a sub vs. as a starter
    .40 less in OPS as a sub vs. as a starter

    Please for the sake of all that is right with baseball, do not Lenny Harris receive any HOF votes :)

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  35. @Dave V.: You should throw in Jose Morales, Jim Dwyer, Tim Crowley, and John Vander Wal too.

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  36. @theklaffer - here goes, as I've added your guys into the list (minus Tim Crowley, as I can't find info on any guys by that name):

    --Rusty Staub: 471 PA - .276 BA - .365 OBP - .766 OPS
    --Manny Mota: 772 PA - .281 BA - .350 OBP - .693 OPS
    --Jose Morales: 609 PA - .278 BA - .327 OBP - .749 OPS
    --Milt Thompson: 520 PA - .268 BA - .350 OBP - .712 OPS
    --Marlon Anderson: 423 PA - .264 BA - .325 OBP - .726 OPS
    --Jim Dwyer: 684 PA - .255 BA - .349 OBP - .726 OPS
    --Lenny Harris: 1186 PA - .254 BA - .310 OBP - .638 OPS
    --John Vander Wal: 653 PA - .243 BA - .341 OBP - .742 OPS

    Lenny Harris remains the worst of the bunch.

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  37. No career pinch hitter should receive HOF consideration. In fact, I think there should be some additional criteria (PA or IP) that goes along with the years of service to determine eligibility for the ballot.

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  38. Man, Charles Johnson was one of my favorite players. I'm only 35, but seeing him eligible for the HOF makes me feel *old*.

    My favorite Charles Johnson stat: he once went an entire regular season with no errors and no passed balls. I recall there being at least one horribly egregious call by an official scorer to allow that streak to stand, but it stood, and I don't believe anyone's ever done that before or since.

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  39. I just found something on Baseball Reference where appearances specifically as a "Pinch Hitter" could be noted...now Lenny Harris played from 1988-2005, so let's look at the Top 10 guys (in terms of Plate Appearances as a PH) since 1988:

    --Lenny Harris: 969 PA - 5 HR - 97 RBI - .262 BA/.315 OBP/.650 OPS
    --Mark Sweeney: 830 PA - 16 HR - 106 RBI - .255 BA/.350 OBP/.726 OPS
    --Dave Hansen: 742 PA - 15 HR - 85 RBI - .238 BA/.351 OBP/.709 OPS
    --John Vander Wal: 665 PA - 18 HR - 102 RBI - .239 BA/.342 OBP/.751 OPS
    --Orlando Palmeiro: 605 PA - 3 HR - 52 RBI - .263 BA/.343 OBP/.683 OPS
    --Greg Norton: 522 PA - 13 HR - 75 RBI - .233 BA/.343 OBP/.720 OPS
    --Matt Stairs: 494 PA - 25 HR - 91 RBI - .259 BA/.366 OBP/.865 OPS
    --Dave Clark: 443 PA - 14 HR - 73 RBI - .265 BA/.336 OBP/.751 OPS
    --Matt Franco: 426 PA - 7 HR - 52 RBI - .244 BA/.340 OBP/.683 OPS
    --Daryle Ward: 413 PA - 13 HR - 57 RBI - .244 BA/.337 OBP/.747 OPS

    So Harris has the worst OBP and the worst OPS out of the Top 10 guys in PH PA's from his era. Ouch.

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  40. This is why I read this blog - The Brilliant Readers truly are brilliant. I mean, goodness gracious, all this passion about LENNY HARRIS!!!

    I am not being facetious at all - it is really great stuff.

    Mark in Vegas

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  41. "Jimmy would call his brother and say: "Um, Surhoff is up. I was just thinking: Hey, you faced him. What would you throw him here?" "

    Brilliant.

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  42. @Dave V.: Sorry, I meant Terry Crowley, PH extraordinaire for the '80's O's, but just awful as theri hitting coach the past too many years.

    Nice work, though.

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  43. Baerga probably was 5-6 years older than he was listed, which put his decline into the 30-32 age group, typically when a persons eyesight starts to diminish.

    On that note, how many MLB teams have full time eye doctors on staff? I'm thinking hardly any.

    Baerga's mini comeback in 2003 with Arizona was nice, .343 .396 .464 .859 117
    Wonder where that came fom.

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  44. @theklaffer - no problem & here were his numbers as a PH:

    --Terry Crowley: 581 PA - 10 HR - 88 RBI - .260 BA/.355 OBP/.721 OPS

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  45. The story of how I got to face him is a long and convoluted one, but when Benito Santiago was in the minors, he hit a home run off of me that may still be orbiting the earth.

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  46. I'm a mid-20's fan who reads your blog because I appreciate the history and recent history of baseball that my fan-dom lacks

    I'm also a very insular Braves fan.

    I'll always remember Carlos Baerga as the man who made the final fly-out to Marquis Grissom the one time we won it all

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  47. Dave-
    A 2.23 ERA vs 4.19 over a handful of starts doesn't fundamentally alter my perception of either player, although I'm sure that postseason heroics will be the justification for Schilling's inclusion/Brown's exclusion.

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  48. @Marco

    I don't think it's just the postseason numbers. Schilling and Brown are contemporaries, we all saw each of them play through his prime and yet despite the similarity of their numbers when I think of Schilling I think Hall of Famer. I don't think of that when I think about Kevin Brown.

    Schilling got to 3,000 strikeouts. Assuming Blyleven gets in this year every eligible pitcher to have reached that milestone will be in the Hall of Fame.

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  49. More on Brown and Schilling:

    Schilling helped two teams to the World Series (he didn't do much to help the 2007 Sox). He was the second best pitcher on each of those teams. While we can never know what would have happened without him, one can make a reasonable claim that these were two strong teams, and that, with the Unit and Pedro, they were going to be in decent shape regardless.

    The 1997 Marlins and the 1998 Padres, on the other hand, would have been mired in mediocrity without Kevin Brown. They had other decent players and pitchers, of course, but Brown did far more than his share to drag both of these teams over the finish line.

    If we're going to start elevating below-the-bar pitchers to the HOF based on post-season accomplishments, then we truly do need to find a place for Jack Morris, too.

    Brown=Schilling; there's just no two ways about it. Brown is Schilling's #1 comparable in Baseball Reference. And anyone who was paying attention to MLB in the late 1990s knew they were watching one of the best pitchers in the game when Kevin Brown took to the mound.

    I agree that Schilling will make it and Brown won't, which is testimony to both a Red Sox bias and Schilling's own obnoxious self-promotion. But Brown was every bit as good.

    Truth be told, neither really belongs in the HOF. They should be grouped with Morris, Orel Hershiser, and Mike Mussina as near misses. But if one is in, the other should be. Either that, or the only relevant ticket to the HOF is a good-but-not-great record and a bloody sock (I still think there was a red marker somewhere in the Bosox dugout).

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  50. @oldstation: "Schilling helped two teams to the World Series (he didn't do much to help the 2007 Sox). He was the second best pitcher on each of those teams. While we can never know what would have happened without him, one can make a reasonable claim that these were two strong teams, and that, with the Unit and Pedro, they were going to be in decent shape regardless"

    I'd have to disagree. First, he wasn't the second-best pitcher on the 2004 Red Sox; he was the best. Schilling went 21-6 with a 3.26 ERA, 6.4 WAR and finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting. Pedro went 16-9 with a 3.90 ERA and 4.8 WAR. In addition to that, yes, Schilling was "only" 2nd best on his team in 2001 but he was also 2nd best in the NL. He went 22-6 with a 7.3 WAR and finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting. Overall, there's no way either the 2001 D-Backs or 2004 Red Sox win the World Series without Schilling.

    I don't think players should make the HOF solely on postseason accomplishments. But if they truly were special in the postseason (for more than just one game aka Jack Morris) AND are right at the border in a voter's mind as to whether their overall stats are good enough for the HOF, I'm one who thinks that those special postseason numbers can be enough to top things over towards a "Yes" HOF vote.

    To Jeffrey's point, we all saw both Schilling and Brown pitch in their primes and were paying attention...and even so, I don't think most people felt they were watching a HOF'er in Kevin Brown. And of course it is noted that you don't think he belongs in the HOF overall. But IF Schilling does make it, I don't agree that Brown thus should make it as well. When the HOF does things like that, the HOF gets even more watered down IMO.

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  51. @chartkorrecta78 --

    Not a hard thing to do at all to figure Lenny Harris' career WPA. BB-Ref has him at -8.9 for his career, with 3 positive seasons, 2 seasons at 0.0, and 13 negative seasons.

    He is on the HoF ballot solely because he played in 10 different MLB seasons. That is the only criterion for inclusion on the ballot, kinda like being 35+ and a "natural born citizen" is all you need to run for President. Problem in both cases is getting enough people to vote for you, and a vote for Lenny Harris is roughly equivalent to a vote for Pat Paulsen (and yes, I know Paulsen is dead -- part of my point).

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  52. @DaveV: Points well taken. I should have looked up the actual numbers rather than relying on memory. I would still argue that, on balance, Brown was more critical to his penant winning teams than Schilling was to his, but why argue? Let's just say they were equally valuable. That still leave post-season performance as the only meaningful difference between the two.

    I would suggest, however, that between 1996 and 2000, a whole lot more people had Kevin Brown ticketed for the HOF than had Schilling similar situated. That changed in the early 2000s, of course, but I don't think it's fair to say that nobody ever saw Brown as a strong Hall of Fame possibility. Had injuries not overtaken him, he would have been at least as strong a candidate as Glavine and Smoltz. And despite the injuries, he still matched Curt Schilling's career almost identically.

    Regardless, if the only thing that separates Schilling (Hall of Famer) from Brown (non-Hall of Famer) is the post-season record, then Schilling is the very definition of a borderline candidate. I'm not a Small Hall guy, but I do think that borderline cases ought to be rejected, because they truly do water down the HOF.

    Schilling's top 5 comparables are Brown, Bob Welch, Hershiser, Fat Freddie Fitzsimmons, and Milt Pappas. That's a good group, but there's not a HOF'er among them. Schilling and Brown are simply not in the upper echelon of their generation (Maddux, Glavine, Unit, Smoltz, Pedro).

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  53. @oldstation - I don't disagree with you on many of those points. I don't think Schilling should be considered a HOF lock myself...and in fact, I think David Cone might be more deserving than Kevin Brown actually (I posted about that in Joe's Second Round post today).

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  54. @Jeffery & Dave:

    "Schilling and Brown are contemporaries, we all saw each of them play through his prime and yet despite the similarity of their numbers when I think of Schilling I think Hall of Famer. I don't think of that when I think about Kevin Brown."

    No offense, but it's this type of thinking that puts Jim Rice in the hall.

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  55. I liked these guys-Zeile, Baerga, etc. Baerga was one of those guys who you just KNEW was older than his given age, after mid-96, his career fell off a cliff. I thought he was a HOF for sure til then.

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