As you might expect: There is a lot of back and forth going on in Kansas City over the Zack Greinke trade. And I think there will be a lot of back and forth about it for a long time yet. There is some anger -- some of it pointed at the Royals, some of it pointed at Greinke -- and there is a pretty wild range of opinion about whether the Royals got enough in return.
There is reason for Kansas City fans to have some optimism about this deal, I think. I don't want that lost just because I happen to think the Royals should have gotten at least one superstar prospect. The optimism begins with shortstop Alcides Escobar. He was a Baseball America Top 15 prospect a year ago, and scouts seem pretty well in agreement that Escobar has superb defensive skills, above average speed and the ability to make contact at the plate. Whether those things will turn him into a good every day shortstop -- there isn't much agreement on that part.
The Top Rated Baseball America shortstop prospects:
2009: Alcides Escobar
2008: Brandon Wood
2007: Brandon Wood
2006: Justin Upton (followed by Brandon Wood)
2005: Joel Guzman
2004: B.J. Upton (followed by Kaz Matsui)
2003: Jose Reyes
2002: Wilson Betemit
2001: Antonio Perez
2000: Rafael Furcal
You can see, that's a pretty mixed bag. It isn't easy developing an everyday shortstop. The Royals certainly have had no luck doing it. The Royals and others like to compare Escobar to Texas' Elvis Andrus, but I don't quite see that. Andrus was much younger and showed offensive skills much earlier. I think a better comparison -- and one the Royals should not be unhappy with -- is the best of Cesar Izturis. When Izturis hit for a decent average -- like he did in 2004 -- he was a more than useful player. He posted a 3.7 WAR that year, he won a Gold Glove, the next year he was an All-Star. Of course Izturis has not hit in any other year, and that's the challenge with Escobar. But there are definitely scouts out there who think Escobar will hit, and if he does hit even half-decently he should be a very good player.
There is also reason for optimism about Jake Odorizzi, the Class A pitcher that I've seen more than one person call the key to this deal. Odorizzi isn't yet 21 and he was very good in the Midwest League last year. He struck out 135 in 120 innings, allowed only seven home runs, showed the sort of command that had some scouts apparently comparing him to Zack Greinke. The reports I got on Odorizzi from friends were not quite so cheerful, to be honest, but the Royals obviously like him a lot, and he could be the emerging guy from the deal, the one who in two years will be ready to star in the big leagues and everyone will say "Where did they get HIM? Oh yeah, they got him in the Greinke deal."
Odorizzi was Baseball America's eighth-ranked prospect in the Midwest League, by the way. Will Carroll asked the very logical question: What the heck does that mean?
Baseball America's No. 8 prospects in the Midwest League:
2002: Shin Soo Choo
2003: Felix Pie
2004: Ian Kinsler
2005: Anthony Swarzak
2006: Wade Davis
Again, kind of a mixed bag, but there's hope.
The point of this post, however, was not to go over the deal again but -- as the headline might suggest -- to point out one scary turn of events for Royals fans. My favorite player in the deal is centerfielder Lorenzo Cain. A couple of people have been kind enough to show me their scouting report on him ... and it's extremely promising. Cain is going to turn 25 years old at the start of the season, so he's not exactly a kid. He has also had a bumpy minor league career -- he hit just .218 in an injury-ruined 2009 minor league season -- and has shown almost no power despite his sturdy 6-foot-2, 200 pound frame. So, yes, there are real questions about him.
But there are also many good signs. He is a terrific athlete with very good speed (in 2010, coming off knee injury, he stole 33 of 37 bases). He is, apparently, a good defensive centerfielder with the skills to be as good as anybody in the American League. He is, apparently, a player with great makeup; he has overcome many disappointments to get to the brink of the big leagues. He's the kind of player you root for happily. The scouting reports on him range from fourth outfielder to Torii Hunter comp, so that's a pretty wide range of outcomes. But of all the players in this deal, he seems to me the one who has the best chance in the short term to emerge. If I'm a Royals fan, much of my hope for this deal is placed in the future of Lorenzo Cain as the Royals center fielder.
So, this morning, I read Bob Dutton's wrap-up of the deal, which, as all of Bob's work is, was thorough and interesting and filled with in-between-the-lines hints. I think it was Bob's story on Zack Greinke last year, the one where Zack first indicated his distaste for the Royals youth movement, that set the wheels in motion for this deal.
I read Bob's story ... and a quote jumped out of it and slapped me in the face and made me start this post with the "Uh Oh" headline. The quote is from Royals manager Ned Yost, who was, of course, manager of the Brewers and was undoubtedly a key factor in Kansas City making this deal. He was talking about how the first time he ever saw Escobar he saw a future All-Star (not inconceivable). He was talking about how he thinks Luke Hochevar is ready to step up and be this team's No. 1 starter (pretty inconceivable).
Then he started talking about Cain, talked about his athleticism, how he and Escobar can help the Royals offense "just with their legs alone." Then it all took a terrible turn.
“He’s a center fielder,” Yost told Bob about Cain. “But we’ll see where it fits in. I’m not projecting anything right now. We’ve signed Melky Cabrera (to play center field), and Lorenzo Cain only has (147) big-league at-bats.”
Uh oh. Bob asked Ned Yost about Cain ... and the words "Melky" and "Cabrera" were in the answer? Melky Cabrera of the 83 OPS+ and .317 on-base percentage last year? Melky Cabrera of the minus-21 on the Dewan Plus/Minus for outfield defense last year (minus-9 in center fielder where he only played 385 innings)? Melky Cabrera of the minus-1.2 WAR last year -- which made him by Fangraphs ratings the worst everyday player in baseball? That Melky Cabrera?
Are the Royals really going to block one of the young and promising players they just got for Greinke with Melky F. Cabrera? And this in a year when EVERYONE knows they are going to be absolutely terrible?
Maybe they won't do it. Maybe that's just what a manager has to say since the Royals did sign Cabrera and probably made him a few promises. But, I'm still thinking ... Uh Oh.
As a long time Angels fan, I'm saddened by the mention of Brandon Wood. Now my eye is twitching and it may be some time before it stops.
ReplyDelete[sigh]
ReplyDelete(translation: is Joe mostly right? yup. does his observation provide damming evidence as to the direction of the Royals? probably. does any of this matter, as in will the Royals matter to major league baseball for at least 3 more years? nope. sigh.)
Don't worry, Joe. Talent has a way of rising to the top even in the face of incompetent managers and GMs (not saying Moore is that, considering the amount of talent he's acquired). Take a look at the 2010 Mets, who started both Gary Matthews, Jr. and Jeff Franceour ahead of Angel Pagan. Sure, it took way too long to supplant Jeff Franceour (he did play well for the first month), but Matthews was gone soon. They also started Mike Jacobs ahead of anyone at all, and talent level straightened that out soon enough.
ReplyDeleteI'm with Stephen in that Yost has to play the competition-determines-playing-time card. It's a right of the off-season. I predict that by the end of 2011 both Cabrera and Francoeur will be bench warmers, for the Royals or another team. - TL
ReplyDeletePS: You might also check out Phil Rogers take in today's Chicago Tribune: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/ct-spt-1220-rogers-on-baseball--20101219,0,5208305.column.
I also believe That Cain did not play baseball unil High School. That makes me put less of an emphasis on his advanced age. In other words, he has more room to grow than other comperably-aged prospects.
ReplyDeleteCabrera is a fourth outfielder at best and the season will prove that out.
ReplyDeleteOne other prediction: Francoeur will get most of the starts early in the season, strike out 70 times by the All Star break, barely break .300 in OBP and then complain like heck when he loses playing time. Happens every year.
It's possible Cabrera struggled last year because of the switch to the NL. Hopefully we see him recapture some of the form he had with the Yankees now that he's back in the AL. However, now that he's on the Royals, he'll no longer have the benefit of facing Royals pitching.
ReplyDeleteAre you kidding. This deal stinks. Forget getting a top PROSPECT - they should have gotten a proven, durable everyday starter AND some prospects. What am I missing here? We are talking about Zack Greinke, right? I'm sorry, the Royals ought to be mercifully dissolved.
ReplyDeleteJoe, are you really this dumb, or do you not see a manager who doesn't want to shine a Klieg light on a young inexperienced player in Cain? Would you rather he put expectations on Cain that begin to feel like a burden? A manager has to create the best environment for players to succeed. You don't do that by anointing anyone, especially not in mid-December. Royals fans drive me nuts (and you are one, admit it), they're so desperate for a winner that yesterday isn't soon enough and they'll savage anything that isn't yesterday with a bow on it!!
ReplyDeleteJoe mentioned in his last post that the Royals could have waited it out and let clubs, getting more desperate for starting pitching, build their offers. There are already reports that the Yankees turned it down, because they didn't feel like he could hack it in New York. The Royals were asking for Montero. There's also reports that Greinke rejected the Nationals deal. So that's two teams with prospects that GMDM was interested in that could not work given the parameters of what the Royals had to play with. The more teams that say 'no' the less bargaining power the Royals had. GMDM also mentioned he wanted a position player closer to the majors hence turning down an offer for the Rangers who might have offered Profar. If 3 or all 4 of these guys are major contributors on a team that contends in 3-4 years, then this was a good deal.
ReplyDelete"Joe, are you really this dumb, or do you not see a manager who doesn't want to shine a Klieg light on a young inexperienced player in Cain?"
ReplyDeleteWhen did the commenters on this blog become snotty little jagoffs? This place used to contain one of the more intelligent comment sections anywhere. Now it's brats trying to prove they know more about baseball than one of America's great sportwriters.
Sounds like a real problem in middle-management.
ReplyDelete"The deal enables the Royals to clear roughly $13 million-$14 million in payroll over each of the next two seasons. Greinke is guaranteed $13.5 million in 2011 and 2012." from Bob Dutton's story..... ENOUGH SAID!
ReplyDeleteBryan - Which form that Melky Cabrera had with the Yankees are you referring to? Was it his career high 95 OPS+ in 2006? Or perhaps his 88,68,93 OPS+ in the following 3 years, all while providing barely average or below average defense?
ReplyDeleteI can't believe the Yankees put up with him for 4 years.
Braves fan here...Melky put on some weight last year. That was his major downfall. If he takes his offseason seriously, it's not unreasonable to think he could match his best season as a Yankee (.274/.336/.416). He's still only 26. That said, they can not let Melky stand in the way of Cain. Melky's best season was a .752 OPS. Presumably, Cain's ceiling is higher than that. Melky is nothing more than a 4th OF and he can be a decent one again if he gets in shape. I have to say, though, as a Braves fan, that I was happy to see him go after his debacle of a 2010 season (.255/.317/.354 in an unexcusable 509 plate appearances).
ReplyDeleteChris
I'd like to think the Royals aren't going to block Cain's playing development with Cabrera... and then I think of Kila Ka'aihue, left to moulder in the minors until he turned 26. Uh-oh, indeed.
ReplyDeleteTyler Kepner writes in the NYT today that Zack burned some bridges in the Royals FO when he was indifferent at the Cy Young ceremony the team put together for him in April.
ReplyDeleteJoe? Royals fans? Any truth in this? Could partly explain the apparent hurry to get this done when it seems like Moore could have played it out a good bit longer.
I remember when the Mets traded Tom Seaver to the Reds for Pat Zachary, Doug Flynn and Steve Henderson---and Steve Henderson was the key to the deal.
ReplyDeleteAnd Lorenzo Cain isn't even Steve Henderson.
I love Joe and agree that snotty criticism is out of bounds.
ReplyDeleteBut here, I'm afraid Joe is emotionally and entertainingly overreacting to an innocent statement by Yost. The Royals just signed Cabrerra a couple weeks ago with the promise (apparently) that he would be the everyday centerfielder. I don't think Yost can declare "never mind." Stephen smartly said that talent will work things out, and I think that is true even with Yost - especially since there is a great incentive for Cain to succeed.
Cabrerra and Francouer are almost surely excess and unnecessary baggage at this point (and probably when they were signed), and they likely will be gone by August. It seems so obvious what the Royals should do. Come around June 15 (whatever date is necessary to keep players from becoming arbitration eligible a year later), they should bring everone up, put them on the field and have some fun as the team of the future. If that means releasing Melky and Frenchy (and Kendall and others), so be it. Let's get the "wave" up here and have some fund. I also think Butler may need to be traded, at least if we conclude Kia can play. We don't need three first basemen, and Butler has some real value - maybe for a decent catcher.
GO ROYALS. ZACH WHO? (we can sign him in 2013 when he is a free agent, and he has bombed in Milwaukee)
As always, Joe, I love reading your posts and articles. I've been thinking about what a mixed day of emotions yesterday was for KC sports fans. A crucial win by the Chiefs on the shoulders of a gutsy quarterback who has overcome so much this year, including, at times, our own fickleness and impatience. In many ways, I think the loss of Grienke and what we got for him sticks at the heart of what is wrong with baseball in its current state, and why the NFL has a more viable "product" than MLB. The Chiefs are a very young team of upstart draft picks that weren't supposed to be good for a years. They are led by a proven, experienced quarterback, who, while far from perfect, is really the face of the KC Chiefs, and the point is, we can invest our support of these players because the NFL has created a system through salary caps, franchise tags, etc. that allows these players to be with the Chiefs even AFTER they become stars. That is a concept completely foreign to any Royals fan, and Grienke is the latest in a long list of players who could and should have become the "face" of the Royals. But, in the current environment, that's never going to happen. Of course we weren't going to get anything more than prospects for Grienke because we can't afford anything else. The Chiefs and Royals are in similar positions, with lots of exciting, young talent who are only going to get better. The difference is that, for the Chiefs, this could be the beginning of many successful years of football. For the Royals, we can only hope they catch lightning in a bottle once, and then watch them become someone else's superstar. And that's not the Royals fault, it's baseball's. And I love baseball.
ReplyDeleteBuster Ohlmey made a good point this morning - the market for Greinke was not that hot and might not have gotten any better. Apparently, neither Boston nor New York were interested, and Greinke said no to Washington. He also could block a total of 15 teams under his no trade clause.
ReplyDeleteOhlmey's point was that the market might deteriorate and, if not traded by spring training and Greinke started poorly, his value could have sunk like a rock.
At least Rany thinks it is a good deal, while recognizing the criticism of not getting a potential star. He thinks the Royals got some valuable players for positions of need and they mix in well with what the Royals have coming from the minors.
"Bryan - Which form that Melky Cabrera had with the Yankees are you referring to? Was it his career high 95 OPS+ in 2006? Or perhaps his 88,68,93 OPS+ in the following 3 years, all while providing barely average or below average defense?
ReplyDeleteI can't believe the Yankees put up with him for 4 years."
A 95 OPS+ by a 21 year old is something to be pretty optimistic about. He showed decent plate discipline by drawing 56 walks, so it's not surprising that a team would continue to give that type of player a chance to develop. He'll be just 26 this year, which is still pretty young. Remember that 100 OPS+ is league average, and league average players are quite valuable.
The fact that he's gotten worse since then is certainly cause for concern, but his age makes him look like a useful part time player. I actually think that Melky could be very beneficial to Cain's development if the Royals manage their playing time appropriately.
I think the Royals are going to trade Francoeur and Melky in midseason for some prospects. They did the same thing with Ankiel, Podsednik and Farnsworth last year. If I recall correctly, there was concern that these relatively useless veterans were blocking the development of some of the Royals hot prospects. But in the end they were dealt away and the Royals picked up some more prospects, some of them useful if I'm not mistaken.
ReplyDeleteI really all these new prospects work out so in three or four years when they're all good we can trade them all away for more prospects. It's fun being the farm system for other teams!
ReplyDeleteI completely understand Zack wanting to get out of the losing, but if this "best farm system in baseball" starts to produce....isn't there a decent chance Zack could be back in a couple of years? Cliff Lee part 2?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/escobar-and-cain/
ReplyDeleteBrett
ReplyDeleteGreat link.
Makes one feel Escobar might be good; Cain not so much.
Bellwether Johnson:
ReplyDeleteCain not playing until later in his life is not a good thing.
It means he lacks a certain amount of baseball sense, and if he has this gap between him and those who have played since kids, it seems he won't close it until he's about 35. Little late by then.
As for Melky Cabrera....I pity Royals fans. I mean really, who is going to shell out money for tickets to see this HORRIBLE team? Kendall, Francoeuer, Bruce Chen (assuming he's still alive). YECH!
I really hope that someone with deeper pockets buys the Royals and tries to salvage what was once a great franchise. With the current owner in place, clearly all he wants to do is field the cheapest team possible that can still be called "major leaguers" so that he doesn't have to spend much of his cash. Realistically, right now the league would be better off without teams like the Royals and the Pirates, and it hurts me to say that.
What was the Hurry? The hurry is that David Glass wants to seriously cut the payroll.
ReplyDeleteLook, the goal of a small market team should be having above average players who "earn" more than they make. Hopefully you also have them already under contract. The Royals had Dejesus and Zack locked up for below market value, and decided to take a salary dump.
The Royals traded 2 years of Zack's value, plus two first round draft picks (which they would get if they lost him to free agency) plus $2 million, plus Betancourt (OK getting rid of him is a plus) for this haul. That is not a win.
If Zack had a great start in either of his remaining 2 years, or a good full year in 2011, they could have gotten more than this by waiting. If not, then barring a bad injury, they would still have 2 years of him and 2 first rounders.
Please don't think Soria is safe because he is locked up at good value, because the Royals have already spit on that twice in this off season.
People think that The Royals are merely giving lip service to Melky by promising him the every day center field job-I thought that about Ankiel last year and was wrong.
I myself wonder how much the Royals will really be saving. They are not only giving up all the extra fans who showed up specifically for a Zack start, but many fans are already talking about boycotting. I am talking about people who go to 6 or more games per year, including myself. I will still follow the team. But since they have absolutely no interest in putting out a quality product in 2011, I have no interest in spending the money I usually spend for tickets, at the stadium, or on Royals merchandise.
I am a diehard. I will be back when they show effort and more of the allegedly legendary farm system shows up in KC. But after this 100-108 loss season, how long will it take this team to get back in the mind of the marginal fans who have stopped going AND stopped paying attention?
Uh oh, indeed. If Yuni didn't head to Brew-town, he'd probably be at short still!
ReplyDeleteReally enjoyed!
ReplyDeleteKia Kendall