Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Innocent Until Proven Guilty

Ed Price and I have been great friends for almost 20 years now -- ever since we worked together in Augusta, Ga. -- and I have great respect for him as both a person, a baseball writer and a thinker. He wrote something on Monday that I thought was heartfelt and thoughtful. I also happened to disagree with it.



Well, that's not exactly right ... I disagreed with two relatively minor parts of what he wrote. The main thing he wrote, in my mind, is that he believes that the Baseball Hall of Fame's voting instructions -- to choose players based on their "record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contributions to the team" -- demand that he not vote steroid users into the Hall. I think that is a fair interpretation of the Hall of Fame's charge. I happen to think those words are absurdly outdated, and bizarrely vague, and there is absolutely no hint that the Hall of Fame voters have EVER taken them seriously based on the fact that the very first person voted in was Ty Cobb. But I cannot disagree with Ed taking the words literally. I think every voter has to make that judgment.

But there are two more minor parts of what he wrote that bother me:

1. That the Hall of Fame is not a "court of law" and as such does not demand the standard of "innocent until proven guilty."

2. His announcement that he will now keep his votes private rather than publicly accuse players of PED use without evidence.

No. 1 was ably handled by the excellent Ken Davidoff but I thought I would throw a thought in here as well because we often hear the words: "This is not a court so I don't have to go by the standard of innocent until proven guilty." I think it's kind of tragic to hear anyone say that. "Innocent until proven guilty" is not simply a standard for a court of law ... it is a fundamental right of society. Perhaps what Ed and others really mean when they say that is that they don't want to go by the rigid court standard of proving guilt "beyond a reasonable doubt." I can see someone arguing that reasonable-doubt is too stringent for something like the baseball Hall of Fame, especially when you consider how players fought drug testing, lied dramatically, and have hidden as much as they can hide.

But the basic concept of "innocent until proven guilty?" Are we really going to throw that one away? The concept goes back at least 700 years to the Jean Lemoine, a French Cardinal, who figured that since most people are not criminals they should be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Are we going to start assuming that most people ARE criminals? And if we are going to assume that ... does that even make them criminals?

I'm not trying to go all philosophical here ... but don't we believe in the concept of innocent until proven guilt in every facet of our life? If an employer charges you with stealing petty cash, if your parent charges you with breaking the living room vase, if your friend charges you with backstabbing her at a party, don't they need at least SOME standard of proof? Every single day of our lives, we are faced with some test of innocent until proven guilty, and it seems to me that those words are not about legalities, they are about common decency.

I don't think the Hall of Fame is a court. I don't think a non-vote for the Hall of Fame is declaring guilt either. Ed is exactly right, when he says the Hall of Fame is an honor not a right. But you know what this part of the Baseball Hall of Fame really is? It's a room in the baseball museum in Cooperstown where they put the plaques of the greatest players in baseball history. It's a tourist attraction. It's a place where fans go and remember their childhood, reminisce about the game, consider their connections. It's so easy to get high and mighty about this thing, so easy to lose the whole point. I'm not sure how the Hall of Fame became about innocent and guilty in the first place. It's a room overflowing with cheaters and liars and gamblers and fools. It's a room overflowing with heroes and devoted fathers and good neighbors and nice men. But, really, it's a room with the greatest baseball players ever along with some very good players along with some good players who had powerful lobbyists.

It seems to me that throwing away our standard of innocent until proven guilty when talking about a baseball museum ... well, there's just something kind of sad about it.

No. 2 ... well, Ed absolutely has every right to keep his votes secret. Every voter has that right. And I realize that what Ed is saying and what he believes is that the burden of proof needed to suspect a steroid user and not vote him into the Hall of Fame is MUCH LOWER than the standard or proof needed to publicly call someone a steroid user. I don't think I fully agree with the premise, but I don't fully disagree either. I would prefer him and others raising the burden of proof for not voting someone into the Hall of Fame ... but, yes, public condemnation is a serious matter.

I guess, even more: I don't believe in things done in the dark. The Hall of Fame voting is an odd process. Players, assuming they get enough support, can stay on the ballot for 15 years. Why? As many, many people have pointed out, players don't get any better after they retire.

I think the reasoning is two-fold: One, circumstances change. For instance: A player might find himself on an overcrowded ballot for a time, which would hurt his chances. This very thing probably happened to Luis Tiant.

Two, more importantly, viewpoints change. It has taken a long time for voters to move beyond their initial impressions and biases and finally vote Bert Blyleven into the Hall of Fame (we all think). I think that, as we move away from Rickey Henderson's induction, people will begin to fully understand and appreciate the rare skills of Tim Raines. Some of the most cherished players in the Hall of Fame -- Harmon Killebrew, Billy Williams, Eddie Mathews, Yogi Berra and many, many others -- took time to get into the Hall.

So I think the Hall of Fame views evolution as an important part of the voting process. I think they want voters who are willing to keep developing their views and willing to change their minds. I think they want voters who will challenge their own convictions. And to me, keeping your vote secret encourages stubbornness and inflexibility. If you don't want to defend your reasons publicly -- where they will be disputed and mocked and protested -- it seems unlikely to me that will want to defend your reasons privately either.

This is not true of Ed, who I know takes his voting very seriously and will always challenge his own views. He thinks about this stuff a lot and thoroughly. I honestly believe that he is taking an honest stand here. But I really dislike the concept of keeping things secret. If I get an anonymous email or letter, I throw it out without reading it. If I get an anonymous phone call, I pay no attention to it. I believe we should stand behind what we think or what we say. A person's opinion, in my mind, is worthy of respect if he or she stands behind it. I'm not saying that anyone has to trumpet all their Hall of Fame picks or write stupid 15,000 word blog posts about it. But I think that the process is better if it's an open dialogue. I think voting for the Hall of Fame is a pretty cool honor, and what we're trying to do is create a living and breathing history of baseball. My own belief -- and I know very smart people who strongly disagree with me -- is that we should stand behind our votes.

When Buck O'Neil fell one vote short of the Hall of Fame in a special Negro Leagues election a few years ago, I thought the nay votes should have had the courage of their convictions and explained their reasoning. I suppose you could argue -- some have argued -- that by keeping the balloting secret they did not have to publicly embarrass Buck by saying that they thought he wasn't a good enough player or his accomplishments were not quite enough or whatever reason they would have given. And some think a secret ballot is pure because you won't vote based on public pressure. But I think all that's kind of a copout. I have been led to believe -- and probably will always believe -- that some of the Buck O'Neil voting was political and petty and mean-spirited ... and it's a lot easier to be petty and mean spirited when you don't have to stand publicly behind your vote.

I guess my point is that I believe in light. I think Ed is onto something here, and I think as these ballots get trickier and tricker more and more writers will follow his lead and simply stop giving out their ballots. I hope not. I don't think we have reached any real consensus on what the Hall of Fame should look like after the baffling Selig Era. And I think we should reach a consensus. That's our job as voters. We have been asked as a group to imagine the future Hall of Fame. I think for that we should have open dialogue, with all the bumps and bruises that go along with it.

58 comments:

  1. While we're at it, we should make our less important votes - like president, senators and representatives - public as well. Circle me, founding fathers!

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  2. Circle me, The Bert Blyleven.
    http://youtu.be/_Ws1Hj5-weA

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  3. "It's a room overflowing with cheaters and liars and gamblers and fools."

    Which is why it is petty to exclude Rafael Palmeiro. At the moment, he (and McGwire, though I know you voted for him) is a convenient scapegoat bearing the brunt of the fury over steroids.

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  4. What's most shocking about this stand is that Ed Price has almost assuredly voted for a steroid user already. So what makes Jeff Bagwell (who I assume he's talking about) any different than Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Cal Ripken, Ryne Sandberg, or anyone else who played from the 1970's on?

    Also the writers taking this stand (that they are the ones to keep out steroid users, known or not) are totally gutless and deserve zero respect. Now that they are running with the crowd they act like they are taking a stand but when they had the chance to be the lone voice no one breathed a word about steroid use.

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  5. "It's a room overflowing with cheaters and liars and gamblers and fools. It's a room overflowing with heroes and devoted fathers and good neighbors and nice men."

    Not unlike any gathering of members of the BBWAA... I wish a few more of them would remember that when they start feeling inclined to judge players based on some sort of morality standard.

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  6. Joe-

    Any chance that we could hear your opinion of Barry Stanton? His HOF ballot is a hot topic right now, and it sounds like you've had some experience with the guy in the past.

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  7. The thing I really dislike about Ed's decision as journalist myself is it's harder and harder to get officials to keep records and meetings open as the power of newspapers diminish. And I can't see how we can expect officials to open potentially embarrassing records (which, let's be honest, is the real reason why they don't want to open them) when a writer won't open up his own thoughts about what was a public matter. It's sort of a double standard, isn't it? We need to be as open as we possibly can about our own process or not get all high and mighty when a public official doesn't want to tell us how much he makes a year.

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  8. And I realize that the voting IS private, but the fact remains that he made it public once and decided to close it.

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  9. Is it really accurate to say that Yogi Berra "took some time" to get in? He was elected in his second year and had received 67.2% in his first year.

    But Mathews, wow. Five years for a guys who had 512 when he retired in '68? Unbelievable, especially if you look at a new stat like WAR. Mathews had 98.3 for his career. Killebrew, too. 573 HR by 1975 and yet he took four tries. I'm only 27, so maybe I don't know a lot about HoF voting back then, but I am floored.

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  10. If not making ballots known to the general public, why not to a rotating review committee of peer voters to determine whether voters are acting in a good-spirited manner? If innocent until proven guilty is not a right in this forum, then voting CERTAINLY cannot be a right.

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  11. A non-baseball friend once asked me, "why do people care so damn much about the Hall of Fame?" It's a legitimate question. Joe alone has written hundreds of thousands of words on the subject, just a drop of water. Probably the most intelligent drop of water in the whole sea, by the way.

    But really, people care so much about the Hall of Fame because it's not really about the Hall of Fame. It's about the legacy of the game, it's about history, greatness, tradition, character. The Hall represents what we like to consider the very best, the players who transcend the game. And with the popularization of new and improved methods of evaluating success on the field, the concept of who the best players are only gets more and more controversial.

    I'm really thrilled that you decided to touch on this subject, Joe, because it's always infuriated me to hear someone cast aside "innocent until proven guilty" with HOF cases and otherwise. If we care so much about the Hall - which anyone involved in this discussion clearly does - then why WOULDN'T we apply the standards of the courts? Why do these people throw their heart and soul into defending their HOF choice, and then at the same time brush away one of the most dramatic and fundamental rights of human beings? Seems incongruous to me.

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  12. You only get a vote by virtue of being someone who gets paid to put his baseball-related thoughts eloquently down in words, don't you? So to now decide that you're not going to put your baseball-related thoughts about your vote eloquently down in words is rather contradictory, isn't it?

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  13. Well said, Mr. Posnanski. I also think they need to expand the voting so that a handful of creaky old moralists (who probably cheat on their taxes) don't keep the best players out of the Hall of Fame. A more inclusive vote that includes members of the BBA and other above board organizations are represented. This will give a more rounded approach to the voting and keep the votes closer to public opinion.

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  14. "some of the Buck O'Neil voting was political and petty and mean-spirited ... "
    Seriously? That amazes me. Who could be mean spirited with Buck O'Neil for God's sake? You'd have to be some kind of a world class jerk. Unbelievable.

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  15. preponderance of the evidence: the greater weight of the evidence required in a civil lawsuit for the trier of fact to decide in favor of one side or the other. This preponderance is based on the more convincing evidence and its probable truth or accuracy, and not on the amount of evidence. Thus, one clearly knowledgeable witness may provide a preponderance of evidence over a dozen witnesses with hazy testimony. Preponderance of the evidence is required in a civil case and is contrasted with "beyond a reasonable doubt," which is the more severe test of evidence required to convict in a criminal trial.

    EVIDENCE would be a good place to start, but what do i know I'll probably fail out of law school tomorrow (Grades take a long time to post).

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  16. First off, I want to say that if I had a Hall of Fame vote, Jeff Bagwell would be on my ballot.

    But I can kinda understand the rationale of people who don't want to vote for him because they suspect him of PED use, and consider that a reason to not vote for someone.

    The thing is, if he is voted in and then it comes out that he was using PEDs, he can't be un-voted in. So I think that these people are waiting for some kind of clear-cut evidence that Bagwell's clean.

    But of course, there never will be any. While you can come up with strong evidence that someone used PEDs, finding strong evidence that someone didn't is virtually impossible.

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  17. Ugh, everyone ALWAYS brings up Ty Cobb when they talk about horrible people in the Hall of Fame. Ty Cobb needs to be viewed as a products of the time he lived in. Was he a racist? Yep, he sure was. But this was the Jim Crow South that still had the scars of Reconstruction clearly visible when he was growing up. Racism was everywhere and practiced in some form by almost all people. That doesn't make it right, but it is what it is, we can't expect people that grew up then to have the same values and mores as we do today. He also built a hospital in his hometown and started the Cobb Educational Fund to help needy Georgia students afford college, so he doesn't seem like that bad of a guy to me

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  18. I totally agree that in a perfect world, everyone would be transparent with what they do (and not just in their hall of fame voting).

    The reality is that many if not a majority disagree with this position.

    The good news is that those who are transparent have a much better chance of creating postive change vs those who keep to the dark.

    Guys like Joe help shape popular opinion, even when it isn't yet popular.

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  19. cardsibc: Something to consider: There's racism, and then there's this:

    "A racist, Cobb once slapped a black elevator operator for being "uppity." When a black night watchman intervened, Cobb pulled out a knife and stabbed him. (The matter was later settled out of court.)"
    http://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/nge/Article.jsp?id=h-733

    I don't want to start a racial discussion, but there's a reason people seem to cite Cobb when speaking of character issues.

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  20. People are waiting for clear cut evidence that Bagwell was clean? There has never been any serious accusations or innuendo or any type of even semi valid reason to think that Bagwell used steroids. He was simply a great player,and a consistent one, who played in the steroid era. He was limited in the latter part of his career and had it shortened by an injury, and might have lengthened his career had he used them. He played for one team his entire career and retired rather than attempt to DH in the AL so that they could receive an injury settlement from insurance. He should be a first ballot hall of famer

    I have been seeing support here for Rafael Palmiero, despite the fact that there has been real talk of Raffy and steroids since the early 1990's, when he was criticized for not having enough power to play first base and suddenly began to hit 41 Home Runs per year. He was eventually caught. He is still not nearly as good a player as Bagwell, but Raffy is one of the few people who may have built most of their Hall of Fame case with the prolonged abuse of steroids. From 1993 when Canseco injected him, to 2005 when he tested positive and retired, he built hs career #'s on artificial power. Bagwell had legitimate power for 15 years along with other great baseball skills, and is only suspected of steroid use by a few writers for no other reason than his greatness.

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  21. We can over-romanticize sports, but the Hall of Fame is something special-not its physical being, but a special kind of status that presumably comes with being among the couple of hundred best of over 17,000 that have played the game. More than any other game, baseball is rooted in its traditions and a line of statistical measurement that, even if imperfect, creates a baseline of excellence. Arguing over merit is part of being a fan; Joe is right when he advocates for more discussion, but even he has to acknowledge that some of the open debate has become pretty corrosive, with some writers indulging themselves in belittling all judgments different then their own. Steroids just amplifies this; and perhaps everyone would be better just picking a side and sticking with it. Joe is right when he says that suspicions aren't really enough, and guilty until proven innocent is antithetical to our values. But for us, the fan, the real tragedy of steroids in this debate is less what it says about "character" and more about leaving us without moorings-we need those stats to equalize among generations, and debasing them forces us to work without the net of fairness. A clean Bagwell belongs in the Hall. A Bagwell who's stats are inflated by 20% because he juiced? Maybe not. But in the end, it's not possible to ignore PEDs-you can make an intellectual decision that you want to pretend no one used them, but to compare them to greenies, or spitballs, just misses the point. Usage by some players was not irrelevant-they are performance enhancers-and if bigger and stronger didn't help, then every Freddy Patek would be a home run king.

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  22. I guess I can understand if people want to keep out McGwire and Palmeiro because of steroids, even if I don't agree. There are plenty of people with circumstantial evidence at least, and if steroids are a big deal not voting for those people is at least defensible.

    But Bagwell was not in any report, rumor, insinuation or expose that even said he was remotely close to steroids. Keep out steroid users if you want, but just claiming anyone who was on the same team as a steroid user or hit a lot of home runs MUST be a steroid user is the most flimsy evidence ever.

    We are dangerously getting close to Inquisition-style witch hunts here. Unless you have some kind of photographic record of your entire time in the league proving you did no steroids, then you MUST be a steroid user. Claims of innocence are twisted into guilt, and anything you say is used as evidence that you are a user. This isn't about innocent until proven guilty - this is about guilty no matter the defense, guilty no matter the response. The only evidence these writers care about is unattainable.

    It is pretty sanctimonious for these writers to get on a high horse when they covered the sport and never spoke out either. If you wrote during the era, I should presume you covered it up, and you should lose your Hall voting rights.

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  23. @Mike: The benefits of PEDs has been overstated; Joe posted a link recently to a great site called Steroids and Baseball which shows how little of a difference it has made, and how little help it really provides. Keep that in mind.

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  24. First of all the secret (or Australian) Ballot was introduced to reduce corruption. In the days when a man (and all voters were men) had to get up on a platform and announce his choice it was very easy for an employer or landlord to give instructions on how to vote. Even those voters who were bribed had to follow through! The question would be, is a vote for the Hall of Fame as important as a vote for President or Mayor or Representative and does the voter need to be protected from corrupt influences. Perhaps not
    Second the idea of "innocent until proven guilty operates in a special place, a court of law. The rest of life is not a court of law. More important that "innocent until proven guilty is that in most democracies an accused has the right not to incriminate himself. Therefore an accused does not have to tell the truth and may even lie in their own defence. I do think that we have a right to expect that players who want to be in the Hall of Fame will not treat the process like a court case but will instead feel an obligation to tell the truth. I think that is where the character issue comes in for me. It is not the use of steroids that bothers me so much, its the lying. Tell the truth and be forgiven!

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  25. You'd make a convincing politician Joe.

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  26. @Luke Martinez

    That article supposedly disproving the effects of steroids on power numbers is repeated everywhere but was pretty well dismantled piece by piece by a statistician who pulled apart his numbers:

    http://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/article/58803

    Also, I agree with most everything Joe says here, but if the Hall is really just a place for tourists and already includes a host of unsavory characters (which it does) why do we care so much that Bagwell gets in (and gets in now!). It almost seems that the tone of this argument has become "The HOF really isn't anything to get worked up about, but all of you people not voting for Bagwell are disgusting sub-human witch hunters." Seems a bit contradictory.

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  27. I could not agree more that it is a sad and dangerous turn when society feels no need to require evidence of guilt before concluding a person is guilty of whatever charge they face. The presumption of innocence is the bedrock of our system of justice and should not be limited to the courtroom. The erosion of the requirement of evidence before guilt has already been seen in the courtroom and it is nonsense to believe the same people who are selected for jury duty will be able to maintain the legal standard in the courtroom when they disregard it in all other matters. I would also suggest the standard is more accurately stated as "innocent unless proven guilty" as use of the word "until" suggests it is inevitable.

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  28. Interesting thoughts there, Poz...

    Theoretically, the secret ballot has as one of its principles 'innocent until proven guilty', because the voter is presumed to have pure intentions...practically speaking though, maybe not most, but a great deal of people cheat on their taxes, spouses and of course there is the saying "if you didn't cheat you weren't trying hard enough." So we know that the intentions of all are not neccesarily pure, but in fact malicious.

    The question becomes what is it we are trying to attain with the voting in the first place? Elect the best baseball players into the HOF. Considering their playing skills and statistics, AND their integrity (because thats written in there).

    Take this scenario: if a player was somehow found out to have "stolen" the skills (not neccesarily HOF skills) of someone else before his career had begun, and the player worked hard and finished his career as a statistical HOFer, would that be valid? I dont think so because purely in this context the "ends", that is the player got a long career, perhaps a better one, and consideration for the HOF do not justify the "means" of stealing.

    Now what we have here is pure conjecture about who cheated, and who did not. The voters should have to reveal their ballots because we have already been down that road before. If we only get half the truth (because the cheaters will NEVER open up) and some uncomfortable explanations about why Mr. X voted that way, so be it. It may not seem fair, but if you watch a crime happening and do nothing about it (in the purest legal sense, not just baseball), than there is a price to pay for the non-users that get grilled...

    Thats life

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  29. Joe-

    You concede that: "Perhaps what Ed and others really mean when they say that is that they don't want to go by the rigid court standard of proving guilt "beyond a reasonable doubt."" but then go on to argue for several paragraphs against a different statement.

    I'm not sure you're being particularly fair to Ed.

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  30. I love Joe, and even enjoy this post and the thread, but the condept of "innocent until proven guilty" is a legal one, not one that applies to other aspects of life. We all, including Joe, make judgments frequently that are not "proven."

    Some of these players obviously used PED, even though it has not been "proven." Barry Bonds? So, if a voter wants to hold that against the player, or make a judgment that the guy used PED on his own standard of proof, that is fine. I also think it meakes sense for the voter not to reveal his ballot, because that is making a public accusation which is different than simply casting a vote.

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  31. @Mike -

    Perhaps we'd be better off dropping the pretense that numbers equalize across eras. Do steroids make the game different from the one that Aaron played? Of course. But so do closers, LOOGYs, weight training, nutritionists, legal supplements, personal trainers, new ballparks, a changed ball, money, etc. And, of course, Aaron's era is different from Ruth's because of greenies, but also because of integration, night baseball, air travel, money, new ballparks, etc. And Ruth's era differs from Cobbs because of the live ball. It takes an impressive degree of handwaving to say that steroids have corrupted the otherwise smooth process of comparing between eras.

    It's part of why stats like OPS+, WAR, ERA+, etc. gain so much traction with the statistically inclined: you can't meaningfully compare raw numbers between eras, so instead you compare how much a player excelled over his league. And on that basis, Bagwell is a highly deserving Hall of Famer: whether he was using or not, he stood head and shoulders in which plenty of people (scrubs as well as stars) were using.

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  32. Interesting post Joe. I find it incredible hard to put how I feel about players in the steroid era into words so justifying reasoning for voting/not voting for a player has to be difficult.

    Innocent until proven guilty is a right of our society, but I don't know if a HoF vote determines either of those things. The lens through which I view the offensive performances of that era is shaded because I suspect that what I saw was not as real as I thought at the time. I wanted to believe it was real, baseball writers wrote about it like it was real, but now we have a reason to doubt the performances and suspect the players. Maybe we do not think they are guilty, but we know enough to accuse them. Does that mean they are guilty? I do not know if it does. Maybe it does not mean the players are guilty or innocent, just suspects. That could be a reason for not voting the players in right right away.

    Ed Price has reasons for not voting for players based on their suspected involvement with steroids maybe he should have stayed away from legal language to describe why.

    I loved watching the HR race of McGwire and Sosa, but I now look back on that same event with a different view. I could not say what I would do in his or your place because honestly I still need more time. The performances were awesome at the time. HoF worthy. Looking back now, maybe they weren't.

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  33. My biggest issue with the people who bring up the character clause is that you never hear them clamoring to remove Mays or Mantle (non-steroid PEDs), Gaylord Perry (the spitball), Whitey Ford (the scuffball) or John McGraw (master of the spikes-up slide) from the Hall. Where's the internal consistency or intellectual honesty?

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  34. @Nathan-

    The performances were as real as any others in baseball history. These were real hitters taking real swings at real baseballs pitched by real pitchers who were really trying to get them out, and they were hit over real fences. If the Mitchell Report and the first few positive steroid tests taught us nothing else, they were also hit off pitchers who were also using steroids. Their homers aren't directly comparable to Maris's 61, but Maris's 61 aren't directly comparable to Ruth's 60 either. And PEDs are a fairly minor item on the list of reasons they're not comparable.

    My own take is that the Hall of Fame has never shied away from inducting players who were known to use other PEDs, and it has never shied away from players who are known to have cheated on the field in other ways. In fact, baseball is one of the few sports where on-field cheating is seen as somehow loveable: most of us enjoy the story of Gaylord Perry rolling the ball to the catcher when the umpire requested a look at it, or of Graig Nettles's bat exploding and having superballs bouncing all over the place.

    To me, it's sufficient to say that if you were the best of an era in which steroid use was widespread, you're every bit as much a Hall of Famer as if you were the best of an era where greenies were widespread, where only a handfull of players trained with weights, where only a handfull of players exercised in the offseason, or where only white players were eligible to play.

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  35. @Chris McClinch-

    Good point. You are probably right.

    Do you think the HoF voters will vote in the best of the steroid era if they have reasonable suspicions? I don't know if they will. Too many will remember Palmeiro wagging his finger, McGwire crying, Big Papi's beans and rice proved wrong, Many's estrogen, etc. to vote them in for their best in baseball performances.

    I think part of the reason I would have a hard time voting for players of that era, is because when I look back it is not with fondness. I have to look back at the incredible players and remember how I felt at the time. When I think about George Brett (I was really young or not born and have to rely on stories told by my dad) I hear my dad tell about the intense player and wondering if he would hit .400 in 1980.

    When I think about McGwire I first remember his blathering before congress and then his and Sosa chase of Maris' record. There is an additional step in there that I (and probably many others) have a difficult time getting past. It is not worse than greenies(also drugs) or institutionalized racism (way worse on a whole different scale) but it is more recent so I have a more difficult time getting past it. I admit, I do not have a jaded view of players who used greenies, but that was many years before I was born. Maybe the same will happen to players of this era. I know my parents were off put by their favorite players on the Royals getting caught with cocaine in the 1980's, but the feelings are much less intense almost 30 years later.

    I think I may adopt your point of view of Hall of Famers eventually but I still need time to soften my feelings.

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  36. On one hand we're saying that we can't impugn someone like Bagwell because there's no evidence he used steroids, and on the other hand we're saying we can't impugn confirmed steroid users because most everyone else was using steroids too.

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  37. @Mark Daniel-

    By and large, there are people who are saying you can't impugn Bagwell because there's no evidence, and there are COMPLETELY DIFFERENT people saying you can't impugn confirmed steroid users. I'm one of the latter, for example. Believing the latter doesn't rule out the former, though. Watch:

    1. Steroid use during the era that the game wasn't even bothering to test for it is no more cheating than the use of amphetamines from the '60s through today. You could even argue that through the combination of refusal to test and marketing around the home run ("Chicks dig the long ball," anyone?), the powers that be were tacitly encouraging their use.

    2. As such, it really isn't a big deal who used and who didn't. You can easily enough assume that everyone had the opportunity to use--and that they were considered part of a level playing field within the game--and simply judge on the basis of who stood out most from his peers.

    3. But even if you don't see 1 and 2 the way I do, you still have to have a better standard of evidence than "just look at him" or "those numbers don't fit normal aging patterns."

    See how easy it is to hold both positions?

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  38. @Nathan-

    I actually don't think the writers will vote in many of the biggest names from the past generation of players. I think the writers' feelings are still at least as raw as yours, and I think they're intending to get back at the players for making them look like chumps.

    That said, I also think the Hall will find a way to convene special committees to deal with this era, if only because it cheapens the Hall not to have arguably the greatest hitter and arguably the greatest pitcher who ever lived on the outside looking in. The Hall may confer special status to the career of a Ripken or even a Gehrig, but the inclusion of a Clemens or a Bonds, just like the inclusion of a Ruth, a Walter Johnson, or a Ted Williams, confers legitimacy on the Hall. Those are the ones you have to get right because they're the ones whose placques fathers will be taking their sons to see.

    Of course, I recognize that I come at steroid use in baseball from a dramatically different perspective than most people. I've never used them myself, but I've competed as a natural bodybuilder, been a personal trainer, and worked in performance enhancement. I've read the literature an come to the conclusion that safe, responsible steroid usage is possible. I've also come to the conclusion that while they're illegal, the only people for whom it's worth it, from a risk-reward perspective, are professional athletes. As such, I tend to assume that professional athletes--particularly in untested sports--are using. Hell, even in tested sports like the NFL, Olympic weightlifting, and Olympic track and field, most athletes are using. And I don't really care unless it's one of the relatively few sports where steroids are a cultural taboo.

    Back in 1998, I assumed that McGwire and Sosa were using, but I didn't care. Just like I have strong suspicions about players in the NFL and the NBA who have never failed a drug test, but I don't care. Now, in natural bodybuilding or Olympic water polo I care--because in those sports, steroid use is forbidden by the culture.

    My guess is that over the next decade, baseball will likely evolve in the direction of the NFL, where everybody is using, nobody cares, and drug tests will really serve as IQ tests. It wouldn't shock me, though, to see the sport truly clean itself up, and it wouldn't shock me to see steroids legalized and thus removed from the banned list--particularly as aging baby boomers start exploring their life extension potential.

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  39. Chris McClinch,
    Why is it okay to assume most players used steroids, but it's not okay to assume specific players used steroids? It would seem that if you assume the former, then you imply the latter.

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  40. @Mark Daniel-

    Now I see what you're getting at. Let me answer your question with a question, however:

    If we posit that most Americans aren't completely honest on their taxes, would it still offend you if I called you a tax cheat?

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  41. I have been led to believe -- and probably will always believe -- that some of the Rafael Palmeiro voting was political and petty and mean-spirited

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  42. I read the book "Willie's Boys" about Willie Mays' days with the Birmingham Black Barons. There it seemed that some folks felt that Buck O'Neil had gotten along too well with the owner of the Monarch's, who was considered racist. I wondered if that was at the root of the HOF snub.
    Seems a bit long to hold on to such a grudge, considering all that has transpired over the years.
    BTW: "The Soul of Baseball" is a must read for any fan of - - - Joe, Buck or baseball.

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  43. I agree that guilt should not be presumed, but I don't think Price is saying that he presumes anyone is/was a PED user. What he is saying goes to the standard of proof that he finds sufficient to prove, to him, that someone used PED's and therefore will not get his vote based on his interpretation of the HOF standards.

    I don't agree that PED use during the heyday period by itself disqualifies anyone from HOF consideration. Bonds should be in regardless of PED's; Palmeiro should stay out not because of PED's but because his numbers don't outweigh the fact that he was never the best, and being good or even very good isn't enough. Dale Murphy isn't a HOF'er either, but I'd rank him over Palmeiro because for a couple of years he was great, maybe the best.

    But to those voters who do feel a responsibility to exclude PED users, the question of the standard of proof of PED use is a legitimate one. Does "proof" require a signed confession or an undisputed test? What about players who test positive but claim they didn't knowingly take PED's? Shouldn't a voter be able to rely on his judgment, look at a player's body shape and mass, performance trends, telltale injuries, and other indicators consistent with PED use?

    Admittedly, a voter's personal evaluation of whether or not a player used PED's will be subjective. But all HOF voting factors are subjective. That's one reason there has never been a unanimous selection.

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  44. Chris McClinch, you make a good point. But I think to make tax cheating comparable to steroid use, I would have to be some middle class dude with a modest house who suddenly comes home with a brand new Porsche. And then I would spend $100K refinishing the kitchen. Then, people would start getting suspicious of my tax filings. And I probably would get offended by that since I bought all that stuff without cheating on my taxes. But I think I would understand why people were suspicious, considering most Americans were tax cheats.

    I'm not saying that excluding Bagwell, for example, from the HoF is fair. It's not. But I certainly understand where HoF voters are coming from. I don't even think a lot of them are personally accusing Bagwell with their non-vote. I think they are simply too conflicted about the era to make a decision about anybody yet.

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  45. "Shouldn't a voter be able to rely on his judgment, look at a player's body shape and mass, performance trends, telltale injuries, and other indicators consistent with PED use?"

    Not in my opinion. Take a look at Hank Aaron's career. If a player today had that decline phase, we'd automatically assume he was using steroids. We assume Aaron to have been steroid-free, however. Take a look at John Grimek's or Steve Reeves's physique. If we saw a player who looked like either one, we'd automatically assume he was using steroids. We know that they weren't available (hadn't been synthesized yet)when Grimek and Reeves were competing, however.

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  46. And to those who feel a responsibility to exclude PED users, I have one question: when are you going to start campaigning to remove Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron from the Hall?

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  47. @Mark Daniel-

    The scenario you laid out with regard to tax cheating is comparable to Bonds. For Bagwell, it really is "He's American, and he owns some nice stuff; therefore he's probably a tax cheat." I'm also troubled by the disconnect that says illegal use of one type of PED is no bar to entry, while illegal use of another is an automatic disqualification.

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  48. Chris McClinch, I agree with you. I think Bagwell should be in. Are we going to exclude all sluggers from the steroid era? I understand if you believe that Bonds or McGwire gained an unfair advantage by using steroids, and thus you withhold your vote. But Bagwell is as clean as you're going to get. He's no different than Frank Thomas or Ken Griffey Jr. Are we not letting those guys in either?

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  49. Well, we just learned what the voters did do, and it's pretty fair to say that proof or strong suspicion is enough to get a great many "no" votes. Palmerio is lucky he didn't fall below 5%, and Bagwell was below 50%. McGwire dropped-not a great omen. Either a a tectonic shift is going to place in the minds of voters in the future, or a great many players will never get in, regardless of whether there is ever any proof that they cheated. Here's a list of all the 500 home run players not in the hall of fame: Bonds, Griffey, Rodriguez, Sosa, Thome, McGwire, Palmerio, Manny, Thomas, Sheffield. Of those, only Griffey, Thome and Thomas haven't been the subject of sustained rumors or a finding. Do you keep them all out? Or let Griffey in because he was leaner (and because you liked him?). How about Thome (a Clemente winner, to boot) and Thomas-two men who were always big, Mel Ott types? At the end of the day, to penalize the non cheaters is to hurt them twice-once for having to compete naturally against others who did cheat, and the second time by just throwing up your hands and refusing to vote for anyone. That's an even greater injustice. The writers are going to have to come to grips with this-refusing to acknowledge the historic accomplishments of some (honest) players. Of course, Bud and the union could give guidance by issuing a joint statement admitting their complicity (and even encouragement), and asking voters to honor all the records set, however, I won't hold my breath on that.

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  50. Now that he's in the HOF, and congratulations to him, how do we KNOW that Robbie Alomar was not juicing? Is there actually any evidence that Jeff Bagwell was juicing and Alomar was not? Isn't suspicion of Bagwell based strictly on inuendo and believe that Alomar was clean also based on lack of inuendo?

    So how, exactly, can Ed Price ever vote for anyone who played at a high level from 1990-2005 (or whatever you consider to be the Steroid Era?)

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  51. I think the voters did it about right. There are probably about five who did not make it this year, but will someday. I can't believe Blylevin was as low as 14% one year.

    I'm a pretty big baseball fan, but I am in KC and have only the slightest recollection of Bagwell. I suspect he will make it someday because there is not sufficient evidence that he cheated wiht steroids. My guess is that he did, but I guess applying a modified innocent until proven guilty, he should get in someday. Palmero no, Bonds definitely no, McQuire no, Sosa no, Aroid maybe.

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  52. Mike, I think this problem is the main reason someone like Ed Price would choose to keep his ballots secret.

    Take Albert Pujols. Clearly having a HOF career. There have been no serious accusations of PED use. If he were eligible today he would be voted in. What part of you worries that 2 years down the road we're going to find out he was juiced? 5 years down the road? How much would that change your opinion of him? So if you're a voter, why not wait as long as possible to elect someone? the argument that their stats won't change ignores the fact that the story behind their stats might.

    I'm sure everyone remembers when Bonds first broke Aaron's record. How many people looked to Alex Rodriguez and hoped he would surpass 762, because everyone just knew he was clean?

    The fact is the entire era of the game is suspicious, and any player who put up big numbers during that era falls under that suspicion. Call it statistical profiling, but I'd much rather make someone like Bagwell wait a few years until more is known about who did and who didn't than end up finding out after his election that he was juiced the whole time.

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  53. I'm beginning to believe that guys like McGwire, Palmeiro, and Bonds will have to rely on their peers to induct them, i.e., the Veterans Committee. And even then, it will take a long time, since many of the players from the '70's and '80's have made clear their distaste for having been overshadowed statistically by PED users. It might be that guys like Alomar and Ripken, who played next to these guys, are the only ones who can escort them into the Hall.

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  54. @dschavone

    The problem with refraining to vote for someone you suspect of using steroids for several yearas in case some evidence crops up is that if everyone takes this line of voting then the player falls off the ballot for not gaining 5% of the vote.

    If Bagwell were to fall off the ballot form this logic and no evidence of steroid use ever came to light then would that not make voters look silly?
    You can argument that a veterans committee could put him in and that is true, but it is by no means a certainty especially given teh committees track record

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  55. @geoffreyinnes

    That's true- IF everyone does it. But even confirmed juicers like McGwire and Palmeiro are still garnering enough votes to stay on the ballot. Obviously there are some voters who think PEDs should not be taken into consideration at all, even when in regards to confirmed users. I guess my point is that they can always be voted in later, but they can never be voted out.

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  57. All this and Pete Rose still can't get in because he bet on his own team to win. After all the steroid era nonsense and the voting in of players who were good but not great, the man deserves an honorary induction. Hopefully it will be given to him before he dies. Great post Mr. Posnanski, I always enjoy your work.

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