There was a single point during Sunday's Rafael Nadal-Roger Federer match that actually made me shudder. I don't often shudder during sporting events. To be honest about it, I don't often shudder period. I am lucky enough to live a pretty shudder-free life.
But there was something about this point -- well, I was rooting for Federer to win (like always). This has nothing at all to do with the personalities. I Rafa Nadal very much. I like the way he kind of blushes and protests whenever people ask him if he's the greatest tennis player ever. I like the quiet way he knows how much he intimidates. I like that he's a huge fan of other sports. I like the time he puts into charity. And, if you like tennis at all, you cannot help but be overwhelmed by the way he plays. He is like a blend of some of the giants of the game -- a little bit of Connors, a little bit of Borg, a little bit of Agassi, a little bit of Laver. He plays with passion but he also plays with control. He is a fighter, but he's also an artist. He hits ridiculous shots all the time. It is impossible, I think, to watch him play and not feel awed.
Still, I root for Federer every time. That's from the gut. I don't know that I can explain it, but I guess it might be this: The way my life turned out, the most perfect athletic representation of my ambition is Roger Federer. That is to say ... I probably played tennis at a higher level than I played any other sport. It was a pathetically low level, but we can only work with what we have. Tennis was the last sport I gave up on as a dream. I realized young that I wasn't going to be tall enough to play basketball, and I wasn't going to be strong or fast enough to play football. I clung to my baseball dream until my early teens when it became clear that my incessant fear of getting plunked (and my Tony Pena Jr. like average) did not bode well for my Major League future.
Into high school, though, I believed I had a chance to play professional tennis. I banged tennis balls against the brick wall of the local supermarket for hour upon hour. My highest ideal was Roger Federer. Of course, I did not know who Roger Federer was then -- heck, he was 3 or 4 years old at the time. But what I daydreamed about was playing with his sort of artistry, his sort of grace, his sort of touch. What I daydreamed about was combining the baseline power of Ivan Lendl with the brilliant touch of John McEnroe. It seemed a silly thing, an impossible combination. Then, when my ideal had long faded, Federer came along. And watching him ... well, you know how the right song can trigger a precise feeling, can almost physically take you back to a certain time and place?* Watching Federer has long taken me back to that parking lot, and that supermarket wall, and those unrealistic childhood dreams that I held on to for longer than seemed practical.
*One of those songs for me is John Cougar Mellencamp's "Ain't Even Done With The Night." I don't even think I like that song. But when I hear it, I'm 14 years again and walking with friends under a bright sun.
So I was rooting for Federer, as usual, and there was this point during the French Open Final ... it was pretty clear by then that Nadal would win. There had been some hope for Federer in the first set when he broke serve and had a few chances to win the thing. But the truth is that when they are both right, Federer cannot beat Nadal. It has been talked about time and again: Federer is the greatest player of all time. And he's not the greatest player of his own time. This was the 25th time they faced each other, and Nadal has won 17 of those matches. It was this way from the start -- Nadal beat Federer the first time they played in 2004, and then after losing a five-setter to Federer in Miami (he actually led two sets to love), Nadal won the next five.
It should be said that there was a brief time, from Wimbledon 2006 through 2007, when Federer won five out of seven matches against Nadal. He even beat Nadal on clay during that stretch -- he's only beaten Nadal on clay twice through the years. But excepting that stretch and the odd upset or two in Madrid or London, the best Federer can hope to do against Nadal is extend him. Federer's game is scissors. Nadal's game is stone.
Once Nadal came back and won that first set, the result was determined. All Federer could realistically do was keep the match going and hope for Nadal to break, which is no hope at all. Nadal does not break. Federer played some inspired tennis, I thought. He broke Nadal's serve in the second set to force a tiebreaker. He won the third set. It was wonderful to watch, and it showed -- like Federer's upset of Novak Djokovic showed -- that Federer still has some fight and brilliance left in him. But even while he was doing it, he seemed only to be postponing Nadal's trophy ceremony. And he was.
And there was this point -- I'm sure, looking back it would blend in with a dozen other points -- when Federer was blasting away against Nadal. He must have hit four or five shots that would have been winners against almost anybody else. And every one of them came blasting right back at him.
And that's when I shuddered. There is something about intimidation in sports that is hard to define. There is, of course, blatant intimidation -- a pitcher throwing fastballs high and tight, Dick Butkus talking about knocking somebody's head off, Patrick Ewing purposely goaltending the first two or three shots of a national championship game. Nadal does some of that with the muscle shirts he wears* and the way he carries himself.
*If I had Rafael Nadal's arms, I'd wear those shirts all the time. I'd wear those shirts to funerals."
-- Michael Schur on this week's emergency replacement Poscast. More on this later this afternoon.
But there's a whole other kind of intimidation -- a much scarier kind to me -- that comes from someone or something being inescapable. The thing that made the original Terminator such an intimidating movie character, I think, is that he would not stop. He could not stop. He was programmed to kill, and this goal took up 100% of his circuitry. He wanted to kill Sarah Connor more than she wanted to stay alive. That feeling of no escape is suffocating in ways that sheer force and will and power is not. Andy Roddick hits perhaps the hardest serve in the history of tennis. But somehow that doesn't feel as intimidating to me as a player who runs everything down and and never stops and returns the ball harder than you hit it in the first place
For that moment, during that point, while watching Nadal return shot after shot against Federer -- this bloodless pummeling of Federer's body -- I imagined myself in Federer's place on the other side of the court from Nadal. I imagined hitting the best shots available in my imagination. I was hitting lines. I was moving him side to side. I angled a brilliant forehand to hit to the deuce court. Then, upon the inevitable return, I hit the perfect backhand off the line on the ad court. He reached that too. Back and forth. I hit the ball so hard it turned into fire. He returned it. I overhead slammed the ball so the bounce went to the 23rd row. He ran into the crowd and hit it back. Even in my imagination, even with only my own mind to hold me back, I could not figure out away to put away Rafa Nadal.
I think, when he's done playing, he will be universally accepted as the best who ever lived. He will need to win at least seven more Grand Slam titles because that's how many he needs (right now) to pass Federer on the list, and we do base our greatness on numbers*. But I suspect he will retire with the Grand Slam record He's 25 years old. He is all but invincible in Paris. He has won the last two Wimbledons he has played. He has won 10 Grand Slam events. At 25, Federer had won eight.
*I keep having discussions with people about Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus -- if Tiger falls a major or two short of Jack's 18, could you still make the argument that he is the greatest player in the history of golf? Of course you CAN make the argument and make it pretty convincingly. You could argue that Woods had a more dominant peak. You could argue that Woods played in an era when the quality of the fields went much deeper. You could could argue that Woods succeeded under an intense scrutiny that Nicklaus did not face.
But I still think that if Woods doesn't catch Nicklaus in the majors race, then Jack is the best ever. I think this because Woods set the terms very early in his life. He set them when he was just a kid and he had a poster of Nicklaus on his wall and a chart showing all the major championships he had won. For Tiger Woods to achieve the goal of undisputed greatest ever, I think he has to win 19 majors.
If Nadal passes Federer on the list, I don't think there's a legitimate argument to be made for anyone else as greatest ever. Nadal has won Grand Slams in the heat of Australia, on the Paris clay, on the Wimbledon grass and in front of the New York crowd. He has won an Olympic Gold Medal. He has carried his team to Davis Cup victory. He has dominated the man who was widely viewed as the best who ever lived. He has won 83% of his matches, imposed his will against any and every style. It seemed that Novak Djokovic, who as on that incredible unbeaten streak, was ready to topple Nadal at the French Open, take over the No. 1 spot in the world, become the most dominant player in the world. And he might still do that. But players have had great streaks before -- I'm not making the comparison but I do remember that a player named Jose Luis Clerc once won 27 straight matches and four tournament in A SINGLE MONTH.
Nadal has still won four of the last six Grand Slam titles -- losing only in Australia, which is the least comfortable place for his game. If I had to guess, I would guess Nadal will be the best in the world for a while longer. If I had to guess, he will win more than 17 Grand Slams. If I had to guess ...
But this isn't about guessing or the best in the world or the best ever or any of that. This is about the shudder. I always used to say that John Elway is probably not the greatest quarterback ever, but he's the one who scared me most in the fourth quarter. Gary Sheffield probably wasn't the best hitter in the game at any point, but he's the one that would spark nightmares for me if I was a pitcher who had to get him out. Michael Jordan IS the greatest player ever (see this week's Point After in this coming week's SI for more detail) AND he is the scariest basketball player ever because you know he would do anything to win.
In this way, Rafael has already won. Whether he becomes the greatest tennis player ever or not is beside the point for me now. He is the one player I could not beat even in my dreams.
I always root for Federer to win, but regardless of who wins in their matches, Federer-Nadal gives me chills. It feels like (and sometimes you are) watching tennis history.
ReplyDeleteI like to say that nobody has ever been as good at anything as Steffi Graf was at tennis in 1988.
ReplyDeleteThis is, of course untrue (in addition to being off-topic here). But it's fun to say.
The Terminator analogy is fantastic. The single-minded focus to accomplish one task at the expense of all other needs or desires is terrifying. It reminds me of the season finale of House, where House alienates and nearly kills everyone who means anything to him in the pursuit of intellectual purity. In sports we applaud the ability to never compromise, but in life this quality leads to failure, or even scarier, success achieved by monstrous people like Hitler or Stalin.
ReplyDeleteI've never been convinced that Nadal is just outright better than Federer. During Federer's prime, they played each more on clay than any other surface, due mostly to Nadal not being good enough at the time to make the finals of Wimbledon or the US Open. During Federer's 2004-2007 stretch of dominance in the tennis world, he went 5-2 against Nadal on grass/hardcourt and 1-6 against him on clay. As Nadal is likely the greatest clay court player ever, it is not surprising that he has won 12 of the 14 clay matches between them. By the time Nadal hit his prime, Federer was already out of his (thanks to the incredibly short window that tennis players have). So while Nadal was now making the finals of more of the major hard court and grass tournaments out there, Federer was no longer playing his best tennis.
ReplyDeleteFour years can be a pretty big age difference in the tennis world. It reminds me of all of those stories I read growing up about how McEnroe had Connors' number and was just a better player than him, but a six-year age difference there made it hardly fair. The difference between being 22 and 28 in tennis is incredible.
I disagree that Nadal has yet proven he is Federer's superior. Their head-to-head record is truly misleading because most of their matches have happened on clay, where Nadal is clearly #1 and Roger is #2. Conversely, for the years (since 2004!) that Roger dominated the other three majors and other two surfaces, Rafa almost always lost in the early rounds, leaving Roger to play only the likes of Marcos Baghdatis, Andy Roddick, and young Djokovic in the finals. Nadal lost to Fernando Gonzalez, David Ferrer, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in some of those tournaments.
ReplyDeleteNadal has recently had some success finally on hardcourt, but I think he needs to put away a few more hardcourt majors -- preferably head-to-head against Roger -- before we crown him. Federer's run of dominance from 2004-2009 is too much to ignore.
Looks like GodlyCynic and I think alike... sorry for being redundant.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate the "Roger is scissors, Rafa is rock" metaphor. Because implicit in it is the notion that there are other competitors and standards against which each may be judged. These two don't compete in a vacuum; they compete on various surfaces, against other incredible players who sometimes beat one or the other and are more often beaten by one or the other.
ReplyDeleteWhen Rafa has been dominated by Djokovic recently, on his favourite surface no less, and Nole is dispatched with relative ease by Roger, what does that say? Nole is paper, I guess. Different players match up differently.
Now I wonder who's dynamite, and who's Spock...
I have argued in a number of places that Tiger is already the best golfer ever - Nicklaus played against few foreigners in the US and few of the American pros made the trip to Britain to play the British Open. 3 of the 4 majors are on US soil and few foreigners came here to compete in those. Early in Nicklaus' career, the bottom tier of the PGA Tour was filled with club pros looking to make some extra cash and there were no minor leagues for guys to hang out in while they seasoned. To me, the question is not whether Woods has passed Nicklaus but if Nicklaus was the standard? You coul dmake a good case for about a half dozen guys before NIcklaus as the greatest ever but without the opportunity he had.
ReplyDeleteHowever, as you noted, unless* and until Woods wins 18 there are some people who will never say he is/was #1.
* Astounding how much difference a year makes that I have to type "unless" in there. A year ago, everyone would have said it's just a matter of time.
BRs Peter and GodlyCynic,
ReplyDeleteI always ask the counter-part and whether Federer was feasting on the bad players. Was he just making them look bad or was there really no one to challenge him before Rafa and now Novak. Tennis with the short careers and how 4 years can make a huge difference seems like one of the hardest sports to have a GOAT debate. Even Martina (the GOAT IMO) and Chris still had 2 years apart.
Rafa will not age as gracefully as Fed - who has been buried many times by media heads since 2008 but has streaks of brilliance (due to his style/game) to tack on majors. Their difference in styles lend itself to a different career arcs - Rafa one step slow is a completely changed player because his entire game revolves around defense, movement, and grinding/extending points. Rafa showed signs last year of being able to shorten points but for the most part (and the evidence is clear), he's going to have to get it done in the next 2-4 years against bigger, more powerful opponents - it's even started now with Rafa's air of invincibility taking a dent against the likes of Nole (lost two big FO warm-ups to the Serb) and his off-and-on injuries over the past couple of years. So 7 more majors to overtake Fed (assuming Fed ends his career with 16)? McEnroe and Wilander won 7 apiece during their entire careers. Becker and Edberg won 6 apiece during their careers. I don't think Rafa even has 10 more healthy major appearances in him.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the Fed/Nadal H-to-H (as one-sided as it is) CANNOT be the main variable for Rafa's inclusion into the GOAT discussion - he still has work to do in terms of winning more majors, weeks at #1 (he sits at 99, far behind Sampras/Fed in the mid-280s), claiming the year-end ATP finals (the "fifth" Slam ... he's only made a single final), and continue to fend off the resurgent "new guard" - i.e. Nole has actually won 7 of their past 9 meetings. Whether it's Kramer or Pancho or Laver or Borg or Sampras or Fed ... you gotta consider the body of work.
The H-to-H - as mentioned above by other posters - is definitely skewed. During Fed's peak of 2005-07, Rafa held a 7-6 advantage (6-1 on the soft stuff) but during that three year span - when Fed was dominant #1 and Rafa was firm #2 - they played in 27 common non-clay events. Fed reached 22 finals and won an amazing 19 titles. Rafa reached only 7 finals and won 2 titles ... in fact, in those 27 events, Fed "outperformed" Rafa in 22. So obviously, Rafa was in the early reign as King of Clay but was far from a sure-thing (as he is today) on other surfaces ... and this cost Fed many potential H-to-H wins on the speedier hardcourt, grass, and indoor surfaces. In a way and as weird as it sounds, Fed's GOAT status would be much more secure if he had underachieved just a tad bit more on clay - so dropping out in the semis instead of reaching the finals. The guy is 2-12 against Rafa on clay. But before this year (and Nole's incredible streak), Fed was the only player to have more than a single win on clay over Rafa since 2005!
Here's a question for the crowd: In what other occasions have two of a sport's top five (which I think Fed/Rafa clearly are) greatest teams/athletes competed against each other, relatively in their primes? Jack and Arnie is the first answer to come to mind, but I suspect it's rarer than we might think. A couple editions of Lakers/Celtics might qualify too, but since then the only truly dominant NBA teams (Jordan's Bulls, Shaq's Lakers) have never intersected.
ReplyDelete@akno21: I'm not sure Arnold Palmer would be in golf's top 5 -- but even if you put him there, him and Nicklaus' primes didn't really overlap that much. Nicklaus was at the beginning of his career when Palmer was in his prime. Palmer won his last major in 1964; Nicklaus didn't win his first until 1962. I also think Gary Player may have a better argument for that spot than Palmer does.
ReplyDelete@EtheGolfman: As for the Tiger/Jack thing -- I agree that there is the issue of strength of fields, etc. But I'm not sure how that automatically correlates to Tiger being better than Nicklaus. I don't think he is....and I'm not sure I'd say he was even if he does win 19 majors, which is looking less and less likely. As good as Tiger has been, Nicklaus had far more chances to win majors than Tiger has so far -- Tiger has tended to either win the major or simply not be a factor (at least until the last 2-3 years). The strength of field argument comes into play there, but...it's not like anyone else did what Nicklaus did. I'm not sure there's any great way to compare the two, which is why, for most people, it just comes down to the number of majors won.
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ReplyDeleteWhen the 1984 Masters concluded (the old tennis championship that was at MSG every year), John McEnroe had gone 82-3, completely dominated Wimbledon and the US Open (losing a total of 3 sets, 1 in the 1st round of Wimbledon and 2 to Jimmy Connors in the US Semis. He'd obliterated Connors 6-1, 6-1, 6-2 and wiped out Ivan Lendl 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 in the US Open final. All this after blowing the 2 set lead in the French final.
ReplyDeleteHe was 3 months away from his 26th birthday, he owned 4 US Open titles and he'd played in 5 straight Wimbledon finals, winning 3. If anyone had said, at that moment, that John McEnroe, who was "obviously" the greatest player in tennis history, would never win another grand slam title, nobody would have believed that person.
Not only did he never win again, he only made one more final (the 1985 US Open). He was still a threat - Wimbledon Semis in 1989 and 1992, US Open Semis in 1990, but he was done winning grand slams. And there was no possible way anyone could have seen it coming.
This is not to suggest that Rafael Nadal will never win again. I assume he has multiple French Open titles left in him and probably some other titles at the other tournaments. But I think it's extremely unlikely that Rafael Nadal will win as many grand slams as Roger Federer.
For someone with as much success and as much mileage on his body as Rafa, the end is probably closer than any of us can see. I would predict he finishes with 14 titles. But I won't be surprised if he doesn't even get that many.
When it goes in tennis, it usually goes quickly.
And I join those pointing out that it's misleading to compare Rafa and Roger h2h when it includes so many clay events. Clearly, Rafa is unparalleled on clay. The best ever on that surface. But Pete Sampras could have played Thomas Muster 50 times on clay and Muster would have won 47. It wouldn't make Thomas Muster better that Pete Sampras, it would make him better on clay.
Incidentally, I would love to see 1995 Thomas Muster play 2010 Rafael Nadal on clay.
I always root for Federer as well, and can echo your "best sport I played yet still played terribly" sentiment. Fed was probably slightly better than Nadal at his peak, now both seem to have deteriorated to a similar level so their match yesterday still seemed extremely interesting.
ReplyDeleteIt wasn't the same level of tennis played from the 2007 Wimbledon Final to the 2009 Australian Open Final (the greatest match ever being played inbetween) but it was still riveting to watch. Even though Fed spoiled Djokovic (which should probably go on record as him winning the French Open for Rafa given the outcome of Madrid and Rome) the French Open Final was still likely the best of the past 10-15 years.
Djokovic will be Number 1 because he's already won 7 tournaments and Nadal dominated much of last year's second half. Because of how the system works Nadal can only gain a few points at best while Djokovic can still theoretically gain ~5000 in the ATP rankings. Fortunately Djokovic is much better than Wozniacki so it's not a dual phenomenon where a player who only does well in non majors is the number 1. Djokovic will probably win the US Open if he can keep playing the way he has played the entire year.
http://tennishasasteroidproblem.blogspot.com/2011/02/curious-case-of-rafael-nadal.html
ReplyDeleteTiger is NOT the best golfer ever. Not close.
ReplyDeleteWhom of today's golfers is Player, or Trevino, or Watson, to Tiger, as Nicklaus had to face? Nobody. And, I haven't mentioned Palmer (Ed, he and Jack overlapped a fair amount) or Johnny Miller.
Tom Weiskopf, arguably the best one-major winner ever, would have won 3-4 majors today.
Golfer No. 125 in today's PGA may be better than he was at Jack's prime, but 1-10, or even 1-20? No comparison.
Rafa at his best should be favored against Federer at his best, on all surfaces, except maybe fast indoor. However it's a matchup issue, the Rafa forehand to the Federer backhand.
ReplyDeleteRoger is the greatest and it's too much to ask for Rafa to catch him in the slam count. Rafa and Roger will loser their relevance in GS events at about the same time. Nadal's game takes too much of a toll on his body, and Djokovic's backhand will prove to be Nadal's downfall at the French, not to mention the hardcourts.