Here's something I found kind of interesting.
Jeff Francoeur this season is hitting .269/.312/.451.
Jeff Francoeur in his career is hitting .268/.310/.427.
In other words, Frenchy is hitting EXACTLY like he has hit his entire career. Well, not exactly -- over 369 plate appearances, has basically has one more hit and eight more total bases than his career numbers would predict. But it's almost mathematically and logically impossible for a player to hit MORE like his career numbers halfway through the season.
So: Frenchy is Frenchy. No better. No worst. Exactly the same.
But ... he is better. Why?
Offense is way down this year. That's why. So when you look at a stat like OPS+, which adjusts the number to the players ballpark and league, you can see that he's actually have a much better year than in the past:
Jeff Francoeur's career OPS+: 93
Jeff Francoeur's 2011 OPS+: 111
In other words, Jeff Francoeur is exactly the same at a hitter. But the LEAGUE HITTERS are significantly worse. His numbers usually make him all but unplayable. This year, the exact same numbers might make him an interesting trade-deadline pickup. Francoeur is like Gulliver. He stays the same. Only the worlds around him change.
And there's this:
Career numbers vs RHP: .255/.296/.402
2011 numbers vs. RHP: .249/.296/.389
Career numbers vs. LHP: .301/.345/.494
2011 numbers vs. LHP: .333/.365/.654
The Frenchy Formula is as constant as the law of gravity. He crushes lefties. He can't hit righties. He doesn't walk. He plays his heart out. And if you play him every day he will give you right about a .740 to .750 OPS. In 1968, that sort of year earned Boog Powell and Ernie Banks MVP votes. In 1996, that sort of year helped convince Eddie Murray that it was about time to hang it up. The times change. Francoeur endures.
Two of the last three seasons, he's been awful in the months of July and August, which might suggest that his overall numbers might take a dip. However, over the length of his career, July and August are actually strong months for him. So go figure. Personally, I think he'll end the season around or below 100 OPS+.
ReplyDeleteWhat I find cool about his numbers are his stolen bases. He has 15 already! He's never had more than 8 in an entire season. I don't follow the Royals, so I ask: is he doing this on his own or is that part of the Royals' game plan?
@stephen,
ReplyDeletePart of the Royals plan. They lead the league in stolen bases and OF assists. But oh, that starting pitching.
It amazes me how much ink is spilled over a mediocrity like Francouer. He and Juan Pierre must have some kind of record for the ratio of words written about them to WAR.
ReplyDeleteI think the point, Nathan, is that Francouer is NOT mediocre this year.
ReplyDeleteCheck out Miguel Montero:
ReplyDelete2011: .271/.340/.458
2010: .266/.332/.438
Career: .268/.334/.446
@Nathan
ReplyDeleteDavid Eckstein blows both Francouer and Pierre away in words / WAR.
Well, if you use Words/Best Season WAR Total, Juan still wins. At least Eckstein had a genuine All-Star season.
ReplyDeleteI present to you: Corey Patterson.
ReplyDelete.252/.285/.384 (2011)
.253/.292/.403 (career)
He's better than Franceouer at being bad. And he's better than Franceour at being consistent. (OPS+= 83 this year, 80 career)