Today seems to be a day when I will be writing about things that friends wrote … and how I sort of, kind of disagree with them. Later, I'll have a longer post on this by my great, good friend Michael Rosenberg -- in it Michael is talking about how college players should be paid, an argument I've made myself in the past and am sympathetic to. But, well, I wrote on Twitter that I disagree with 63% of the article, but that it's 100% goodness. Read. We'll discuss later.
Meanwhile: E-migo Rob Neyer has an interesting post that he titled: Jerry Meals might have been right. Seriously.
Once again, I disagree with 63% of it. Maybe 64%. I don't think that the word "might" is wide enough to cover the chance that Meals was right on the call that ended Tuesday's 19-inning game between Pittsburgh and Atlanta. Well, I suppose if you want to use "might" in the grand sense, as in: "Lady Gaga might be Mozart reincarnated," or "newspapers might be the hot business model for the next century," then it could work. But if might represents something that actually MIGHT be true, then no, I don't think there's almost any chance that Meals got the call right.
BUT, I think Rob's larger point is dead on.
To review: The Pirates and Braves played a stunningly important July game Tuesday night. The Pirates are in first place. The Braves have stubbornly tried to stay close with that legendary pitching staff in Philadelphia. Good stuff. The Pirates took a 3-0 lead, and Atlanta came back to tie in the third inning. And then, they played. And played. And played. The game lasted six hours and 39 minutes, the longest game for either side, and the Braves ran out of players, and the Pirates basically used every pitcher they had except their closer, and there were five stinking intentional walk, and so on.
All in all it went 19 innings, and in the bottom of the 19th Julio Lugo walked and went to third on a single by Jordan Schaefer. There was one out. Pitcher Scott Proctor was in the leadoff spot because that's the sort of thing that happens in the 19th inning. He had batted four times in the big leagues -- three for the Yankees in 2007, and one earlier that day. He had not gotten a hit. He had struck out three of the four times.
This time he hit a ground ball to third. Lugo broke for the plate. Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez picked up the ball and threw it home WAY ahead of Lugo.* Pirates catcher Michael McKenry, who had caught all 19 innings, made a swipe tag and everyone in the ballpark, including Lugo, assumed that the runner was out. Everyone, that is, except home plate umpire Jerry Meals, who appeared ready to make the out call, then suddenly did a little body shift and called Lugo safe and, to punctuate his call, made a hand motion of some kind as if to say: "You missed the tag, Michael."
*The throw was so far ahead, I felt bad for announcer Chip Caray who, in the confusion of the moment, shouted: "Alvarez coming home … and … it's … NOT IN TIME!" But, of course, it was clearly "in time." That was never in dispute. Meals was saying that the catcher missed the tag. I know what Caray was saying, and making that call at the spur of the moment is absurdly hard. But these are the announcer moments that are repeated and repeated forever. And I imagine Chip would rather have said something other than "Not in time."
Now, the immediate reaction was something resembling horror -- it seemed impossibly obvious that Lugo was out. The throw beat him by six feet, at least. McKenry was so sure that he made the tag that he was looking to see if a double play was still possible. Lugo was so sure that that he was tagged that he hardly seemed interested in touching home plate. The crowd noise -- at least what you can pick up on video -- was the sound of deflation. Everything so vividly pointed to out that the safe call was as shocking as, say, someone shooting and killing Rambo or Dirty Harry 15 minutes into the movie. People were not thinking: "My, the umpire appears to have missed that call." They were thinking: "What a minute … am I going crazy? What happens now?"
And powerful reactions like this in 2011 are a whole lot different from 1985 or 1956. Twitter exploded. Facebook blew up. Chat boards detonated. Photographs raced around the country, videos were emailed and posted, instant pundits pounded their keyboards and shouted on radio, exclamation points covered the land …
WORST CALL EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jerry Meals should be fired!!!!!
If baseball doesn't get instant replay I'm going to stop being a fan!!!
Pirates wuz robbed!!!!
WORST CALL EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I got involved too. Hey, if you're going to be on Twitter, you have to be on Twitter. My Tweet: "Strange: Woke up this morning, reread Mighty Casey poem. Seems Mudville actually won. Jerry Meals said Casey checked his swing."
Well, anyway, I thought it was funny. Meals blew that call. I'm as certain of that as I can be. But, here's where I think Rob makes a great point: Almost every response I saw to the missed call seemed, um, overwhelming somehow. I saw photos that APPEARED to show McKenry tagging the runner, but not quite. I saw video angles that APPEARED to to show the tag, but again, not entirely. And people sent these around as if they were ABSOLUTE PROOF. I got one photo via email 12 times, and no matter how closely I look at it I cannot make out a connection between McKenry's glove and Lugo's leg.*
*Of course, I do need bifocals. I'm holding off on that as long as I can.
Beyond that: I saw people make the entirely unfair and vicious charge that Meals called the runner safe because he wanted to go home -- one thing that is absolutely clear from the video is that Meals was about to call him out, felt confident that McKenry missed the tag, and then called him safe. It was the gutsy call … if the wrong one. Blame Meals for missing it. But there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that he had the power of his conviction.
Best I can tell from video, photos, experience of watching baseball and so on, McKenry swiped Lugo's leg. But, again best I can tell, he BARELY swiped Lugo's leg. It wasn't a clean tag at all. In full speed, Lugo looks out by a million miles. It looks like McKenry tagged Lugo at least twice before he reached home plate -- on the leg, on the arm, etc. In photos, on video, from the best viewpoints, he definitely DID NOT touch the arm, and Lugo looks out only by the slightest brush of a catcher's mitt. I think Meals missed it. I'm really quite sure Meals missed it. But I don't think he missed it by all that much. The "worst call ever" screams, the questions of Meals integrity, all that seemed to me wildly, horribly misplaced. And that's where I agree with Rob. You will almost certainly see a more obviously missed call at some point today.
Which leads to this: Baseball absolutely should institute replay … and I say this as someone who doesn't particularly like replay in sports. They should institute replay because it's just not sustainable in today's technological world to make bad calls on the field. Those days are over. This year, more than any other, television broadcasts are using boxes to show whether pitches are actually balls or strikes. This year, more than any other, camera angles are consistently (on a daily basis, really) showing that umpires missed calls. This year, more than any other, the social media world blows up when an umpire misses a call. And it's only going to get more and more and more obvious and destructive until baseball will no longer have the sort of legitimacy that a sport needs. I'm not saying baseball should use replay. I'm saying baseball will have no choice. They will either find a way to incorporate replay into the fabric of the game, or they will have replay thrust into the game in some haphazard way, much the same way drug testing was thrust into the game. You can't keep giving the fans at home better access to the truth than the home plate umpire. You just can't.
Replay would have helped Jerry Meals more than anyone else Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. He would have had the freedom to make the call he believed in, and then when looking at the replays he (I assume) would have overturned it. Yes, it would have added a bit of a delay to the game. Yes, replay would change some of the rhythms of baseball. But baseball needs to decide: What's more important, getting it right or the inconveniences of progress?
This doesn't seem an impossible problem. One challenge per game, and you get to keep it if you're right.
ReplyDeleteIn a game where there is no replay available to the umpires for a majority of events on the field, I am inclined to give umpires the benefit of the doubt. This was no Galarraga/Joyce moment, where the replay was conclusive beyond a shadow of a doubt. To be honest, it doesn't bother me that plays like this aren't reviewable. It adds just one more small bit of randomness to a game that is already full of them. And in my opinion, if McKenry can't make a convincing tag three feet in front of the plate, then it's no injustice that the call was essentially a roll of the dice.
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ReplyDeleteYou shouldn't feel bad for Chip Carey. He got his job because of his lineage. He shows no talents as a broadcaster. If his name were Chip Williams, we never would have heard of him.
ReplyDeleteThis isn't the first time that Carey has made a plainly wrong call, and it won't be the last.
Even if we had replay, I would not overturn he call. It's not crystal clear that the call was blown. Using NFL guidelines, we'd "let the call stand". And Meals had a better position than any camera would have.
ReplyDeleteUsing NFL guidelines, we'd still be waiting to hear the ump's ruling.
ReplyDeleteIt was a brave call by Jerry Meals, because no one ever argues all that hard if the ball beats the runner and the tag is applied. Happens at second base all the time, and it's the safe way to go if you're an ump.
ReplyDeleteSometimes you wonder if an umpire sometimes looks for an opportunity to make a brave call. I can't say with 100% certainty that this was the wrong call, but I can say with 100% certainty that it was the wrong time to make a brave call.
Sadly, the point Joe is drawing from this episode is one you can apply to America as a whole. If two different people look at the same shade of gray in something related to politics or culture, for example, the odds are distressingly strong that at least one of them will insist that it's actually white or black, with no willingness to compromise or even consider that other opinions on the subject are available.
ReplyDeleteThat said, by most accounts Jerry Meals had a pretty horrible game even before the game-ending call. So there's that.
Does it make me a poor baseball fan that the best part of the video for me is watching Scott Proctor and his arm falling flat on his face coming out of the batter's box?
ReplyDeleteI would think--whatever your opinion on IR is--this would be a poor example to use for enacting it. The video sugggests slightly that he was probably out? That wouldn't pass the NFL replay burden of proof would it? So we would have had a ten minute delay just to say it was not indisputable evidence and the call must tand. Everyone goes home feeling just as cruddy, and we get ten more minutes worth of commercials or excruciatingly dull pbp microanalyses that sound like someone watching the zapruder tape.
ReplyDeleteNot that IR is inherently bad...in fact it might be inherently good...but this seems like the amti-example to that end
I'm glad to read this article from you, Joe, and I liked Neyer's article as well. The hyperbole surrounding this situation is distressing. This is nowhere near the worst call ever made in baseball.
ReplyDeleteI understand emotions run high, especially with teams in contention for a playoff spot, but, for the love of god almighty, take a deep breath and recognize that if you need two opposing angle freeze-frame shots to kinda sorta maybe sometimes conclude that the umpire got it wrong then you cannot yell and scream like Jerry Meals just executed Rosa Parks for not going to the back of the bus.
The amount of vitriol, lack of perspective, and almost total lack of objectivity is really disappointing. I've read a LOT of name-calling on various Pirate blogs online. Is baseball so important that we can't have even a tiny bit of civility and empathy for another person? We can't imagine how hard it must be to umpire a game that long and to maintain your focus at all times? (Please note that I am a proponent of replay for precisely this reason as well as a few others)
No, clearly we must crucify Jerry Meals and then detonate a nuclear bomb on the site that he was crucified, and then collect the ashes from the detonation and blast them into outer space.
I'm the same age as Joe, and my ophthalmologist says I need bifocals too. When I told him that I was too young for bifocals, he said "no you're not!"
ReplyDeleteBut then, he didn't really press the issue. When I asked him why, he said that it's because he knows that when I go back to see him in two years, I'll be begging him for bifocals.
He may be right.
Josh @ 9:34 AM--
ReplyDeleteI'd have more sympathy with your argument that Chip Caray is a bad announcer, if you hadn't misspelled his name twice...
Fans overreact.
ReplyDeleteIn other news, Democrats and Republicans disagree.
Equally shocking.
Line drive base hit. Caught out there. Runner tags. Here he comes. Throw to the plate on target and in time. A double play ends the tenth.
ReplyDeleteI guess I'm one of those over-reacting fans. I agree with Bob the Builder above. You have to be mighty brave to make that call and when it's the bottom of the 19th YOU MUST BE SURE that this is the right call, otherwise you must stay conventional and call Lugo out.
ReplyDeleteSome are saying that had the call been "out" that catcher McKenry would have then thrown to first to complete the double-play since Proctor had fallen. I'm not so sure about that - it looks like McKenry was facing away from 1st base and might not have gotten a throw there quick enough - after Proctor's face-plant, he did get up and scramble to the bag rather quickly, no?
One final note...Pirate fans hate these extra-inning games with the Braves; some strange things have happened once we get into the 'teen innings. In the 13th inning back on May 26, 1959 look up what happened at County Stadium in Milwaukee.
, I agree with you, Joe, except for one tiny thing--I draw the exact opposite conclusion. Last night's game is a great example of why we shouldn't have instant replay.
ReplyDeleteFor some reason, Meals did not call the play at the plate as umpires generally call such plays. Usually, if the ball beats the runner by that much, the runner is out. Even in the small percentage of cases where the runner might have slid in under the tag due to poor positioning by the catcher, the runner is called out. And by and large baseball fans seem OK with this arrangement. (Bruce Weber's umpiring book points out that umps generally prepare for a call based on the assumption that players will execute plays properly, and that often the "bad calls" are a result of the player doing something weird that throws the ump off. The weird swipe tag by the Pirates catcher certainly qualifies.)
But Meals didn't call the play in the usual way. He called it as if there was already instant replay in baseball. He ruled based on what he saw, at the angle at which he saw it, as if replay could then step in and provide different angles, instead of following the traditional path of "Well, it looked like an ole tag to me, but c'mon, the ball beat him here by a half hour--he must be OUT."
And as others have pointed out, if replay was a part of baseball, the call would not have been overturned.
Brutal call. Even Bob Uecker would not be shouting "he missed the tag." What's just as brutal? The Pirates' broadcasters. That was the first (and, I think, last) time I will choose the Pirates broadcast (I have the MLB package so I can see either one). Those guys are incredibly lifeless. Maybe they are better earlier in the game, as I did not start watching until the 16th inning.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with sticking with umpires and not offering technological assistance is actually the fact that there are umpires at all.
ReplyDeleteUmpires were originally brought into the game in its infancy as an arbiter of disputes. Players on the field would make their own calls, but if there was an argument, the umpire would get involved and make the final decision. Over the years, as play became faster and other innovations like called balls and strikes came into being, the umpires evolved into those who actually made the calls.
Even back then, the players and teams and leagues knew that they needed some way to get the calls right that didn't end with a fistfight. Since there were no such thing as cameras (beyond their infancy), computers, Pitch F/X or anything else, they went with the best option they had available, which was an impartial observer with the power to end the debate.
In my mind, this means that umpires as we know them today are not the end of the evolution, but the beginning. And as technology continues to improve, the idea that the human elements we want to see on the field should have their achievements overshadowed by additional human elements continues to grow more and more ridiculous.
To me, this is proof we don't need replay. As other posters have pointed out, they likely would have said it is inconclusive and you would have ended up with the same result in an even more aggravating fashion. As a fan, it is more irritating to see a blown call on replay, have it reviewed and not have it overturned then not having replay at all.
ReplyDeleteOn another note, this was one he should have called him out even if he was unsure. You can't end a game in the 19th because you think he may have missed a tag when he was out by 10 feet. If he calls him out, there's no argument here. You can't make that kind of hypertechnical call to end a game in the 19th. Let the play on the field decide.
I'm wholeheartedly with Tarnished Crown on point two, though I would respectfully disagree on point 1.0 (I think we do need replay). I do agree with the frustration of point 1.5 (replay/review/STILL GET IT WRONG).
ReplyDeleteWondering what's everyone's take on the other suggestion floating around about how after x number of innings, the umpires rotate positions? Not that it would have helped Meals too much last night unless he had rotated after 2 innings.
What my husband keeps telling me is that what any umpire should NEVER do is definitively and directly affect the outcome of the game. Meals did that twice last night--once when he tossed the Braves' outfielder (wonder what he said that got so under Meals' skin so fast so as to run him so quickly?), then again with the 19th inning call.
Wow. This post is the best insight into the OJ and Casey Anthony verdicts I've ever seen.
ReplyDeleteBifocals aren't that bad. They don't give you Harry Caray's old glasses or anything.
ReplyDeleteAnd Harry's grandson also thought Gonzalez's routine grounder to shortstop in the 18th was going into center field. Not even close.
@ Mike: Thank you....I must say I have been most surprised by the number of people who tend to think Meals was in a no win situation here. My God, the ball arrived right on target from Alvarez, McKenry puts a sweep tag on Lugo who is doing a pop-up slide 3-5 feet from home plate so he doesn't have to take on the stronger McKenry and Meals finds a way in his mind to justify the call of "safe" in the bottom of a 19 inning game?!
ReplyDeletePeople, if MLB and the ump Meals can readily admit that the call was wrong some 12 hours following the end of the game then I guess instant replay would have reversed the call. I am not completely in favor of adding more IR to MLB games - let's just find some umpires who know how to manage a ballgame. Some are saying that Meals is a great umpire and he just missed this one - What the hell was going on in this guy's mind to choose to end a classic regular season game because he thought, perhaps, Lugo was somehow not tagged? I know it's only a game and just one of 162 but I'm still shocked by how this game ended... Did the length of the game influence this call or would Meals have made the same call in the bottom of the 9th? Just curious...
Yes, I'm a Bucco fan from way back before Maz was known for a famous HR, but I'd have been embarrassed to celebrate a victory in this one had the roles of Pirates and Braves been reversed. Probably why this stings so much for the Pirate faithful is now, this season, these games are meaningful and victories are precious and so hard to come by with this team of so lacking in offense.
@NMark W - That's the problem, you GUESS instant replay would reverse the call. How many times have you watched the clip now? Can you tell me for sure, if your life was on the line to get it right, that he was out? You can't. Everyone I has seen/heard harping about how this is proof that we need instant replay are all saying that they can't tell. He looks out, but there are a couple angles I have seen that look like he might have missed the tag... I'm not saying that he did miss the tag, but he might have. It was an incredibly close play. Instant replay is not the messiah that everyone is preaching for.
ReplyDeleteI think the elimination of blown calls is a laudable goal, but for me the two standards against which the "should we have replay?" question should be measured are:
ReplyDelete1. To what extent will it eliminate bad calls?
2. Will in enhance the customer experience?
I'm just not sure that the answers to those questions are clear-cut in favor of replay.
Tampa Mike: I've actually only watched the clip a couple of times. The first time I watched it Lugo was out and it hasn't changed. My use of the word "guess" was poorly chosen...What I meant was since I was not in the room at MLB or with Umpire Meals when they reviewed the video, I "guess" that is why MLB then came out and said along with Meals that the call was incorrect.
ReplyDeleteMy whole point is not about instant replay but is more to the point of the umpire's decision making. In that circumstance with how that play played out, Meals has to be absolutely certain that McKenry missed the tag on Lugo, otherwise you just have to call Lugo out. Meals admitted that he couldn't be certain that McKenry failed on the tag but he thought that he had. I've seen a few posts by experienced college umpires (I assume that MLB and minor leagues umps are not commenting) at a couple different sites and they all say that in that instance you have to go with the conventional call unless you are absolutely certain. That's why I am questioning Meals' mindset - He chose to put himself way out on a shaky thin limb in the middle of a storm when he should have been hugging the strongest branch within reach.
Joe- You said that you could not actually see the tag applied in slo-mo, therefore, even in if this were football, the call would not be overturned. Once the call is made, you have to have clear proof that the call is wrong to overturn it. Saying that you are 95% sure he tagged him is not enough. I watched the all the different video angles and never saw the tag. The Ump can say he was "probably wrong" after staring at the video for an hour, to appeae the Pirates as much as he can, but there is no way in hell that call gets overturned- any sport.
ReplyDeleteI doubt Baseball will ever have replay, but if you want to get there, you have to take baby steps. Start with this: Allow video boards in the ballparks to show replays of close calls and controversial plays. Right now, they cannot show a play with even a hint of controversy, because the umpires are sensitive. Other sports show these plays routinely, allowing fans at the game to form their own opinion.
I misspelled appease which may muddy the context.
ReplyDeleteBut my point still stands.
Try this exercise: First, drop your pre-conceived notions and assume the umpire made the correct call. When looking at replays, that is where you have to start. Beginning to keep track of the time it takes, go to MLB.com and watch the different angles of the video. You never see the tag. Watch them again. There is no incontrovertible evidence that a tag was made. Go to a fictitious mike and explain that. See how long the delay was, and multiply that by how many replays you will allow per game. How much longer are the games now?
Bob the Builder and NMark W hit on what I agree is the missing ingredient in Joe's post, which I otherwise agree with: the old unofficial "the throw beats the runner so he's out" rule.
ReplyDeleteBut I think one of the reasons that many fans want replay is that we don't like the "throw beats the runner so he's out" rule, or the "second baseman at some point touched second base in turning that double play, and that's good enough" rule, etc. So having said that, I disagree with BtB and NMark W that Meals went out on a limb to call the runner safe, because that suggests that the runner 90 percent out simply because the throw beats him. We should want umps to simply call what they think they see, period. Because it's a lack of doing so, a willingness to make the supposedly "safe" call, that's led to all of the "throw beats the runner" calls in the first place.
What I think is fascinating about watching the replays is that I agree with Joe: I don't see absolute proof that the tag was applied. So the only reason I'm sure it was applied? The reactions of the two people involved in the play: the runner and the catcher. Obviously that's not what a ruling should be based on, but it's the best circumstantial evidence that Meals got the call wrong.
Newsflash to everyone still insisting IR wouldn't have overturned the call, Meals himself admitted himself that after seeing a couple different angles he realized the call was wrong. So I think we can conclude that IR would have made a difference here.
ReplyDelete