So, I posted this on Twitter:
Since May 4, Albert Pujols is hitting .312 and slugging .596.
In 2010, when Albert Pujols finished second in the MVP voting, he hit .312 and slugged .596.
I made the point only to say that things have evened out for the Great Albert and that his first 30 games -- when he hit .231/.298/.419 -- just represented a bad month, nothing more, nothing less. Maybe he was spooked and distracted by the contract negotiations. Maybe he was injured. Maybe he just had a bad month. Whatever. He's back.
Several people read this and wanted to point out something else about Pujols: He's not walking as much as he used to walk. And this is affecting his on-base percentage. This is undeniably true. For the season, Pujols OBP is .364 -- almost 60 points lower than his career total and 50 points lower than in 2010. Even over the 92-game stretch I referred to, Pujols is walking less and so his on-base percentage is .386 (compared to .414 last year, .443 the year before, .462 the year before that).
Pujols is walking less. But how much less? I think this is a place where the percentages and left-of-the-decimal numbers we use -- like on-base percentage -- can magnify very small differences. I mentioned that his on-base percentage over the stretch is .386 compared to .414 last year. That sounds like such a big deal. How many more walks is that? Over four months, it's 11 or 12 walks -- basically three more walks a month.
That's not a lot. But it gets trickier: This year, Pujols has been intentionally walked A LOT LESS than he has in years past. Last year, he was intentionally walked 38 times. The year before that: 44 times. The year before that: 34 times.
This year: He has been intentionally walked 12 times all year. I don't know if this is because managers don't fear Pujols like they once did or because Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman hitting behind him have had terrific years or what. But whatever the reasons, those intentional walks pretty much cover the difference in Pujols on-base percentage. The old Pujols would almost certainly have been intentionally walked another dozen times over the four month period we're talking about, and his on-base percentage might have been about where his career OBP is.
Even beyond the intentional walks, yes, Pujols has been a bit less selective in 2011. Fangraphs suggests he's swinging at 29.7% of pitches outside the strike zone, higher than last year (27.5%), which was significantly higher than at any other point in Pujols' career. I think this is the way he has been trending -- a bit more aggressive, a bit more certain of his ability to do something with tough pitches, a bit less willing to let pitchers work around him.
And then, to jump into the world of speculation, I do think there probably is a lot going on in his mind this year. The contract. The bad start. The wrist injury. The quick return. The Brewers charge. This has been a turbulent season and I think that probably has changed his approach at least somewhat.
But that's just guesswork. The main point is the main point: I think Albert Pujols is still Albert Pujols.
He'll still be at least 32-years old next year.
ReplyDeleteI don't particularly trust o-swing comparisons from year-to-year because the pitchFx technology has greatly improved with each passing year. A slight change in what constitutes a borderline strike versus a borderline ball on pitch data can drastically alter a player's o-swing percentage.
ReplyDeleteI think it's safe to say that if the Cards batting order goes Pujols-Holliday-Berkman, then Pujols' IBB numbers would be down significantly. Especially considering that Holliday and Berkman are having better years than Pujols, at least as measured by OPS+.
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing to watch Pujols and know that he probably isn't the same player he was five years ago. We have to accept that. He's 31-years-old now. It can't go on forever.
ReplyDeleteBut, what's amazing is that he was so spectacular as a player prior to this season that even in a down year, his numbers are strong enough to show you how spectacular a player he is.
I was looking at a link today--maybe Fangraphs--checking Pujols v. Joe D and also against Gehrig.
ReplyDeleteI really hope he has not begun a downward trend, but he stacks up awfully darn well against those two.
Those walk stats are particularly interesting. I think there is a lot to the concept that, when people saw him get off to the bad start and/or hurt, they figure they can pitch to him more aggressively.
ReplyDeleteWhich tells me as much about walks (Joe's favorite stat), as it does about the players who get them. Some walks can be chalked up to pitcher control issues - even Jose Offerman got walked from time to time. But I would dare say that a lot more walks are doled out through fear of what the hitter can do if not pitched to carefully. The more potential damage (Pujols, Bonds), the more walks. Once the potential for damage is diminished, so are the walks.
And, so, it's all about hitting after all.
The amazing thing about Pujols is that his "bad" season is a season almost anyone else in Baseball would give their eyeteeth to have. A 153 OPS+ is not exactly falling off the table.
ReplyDeleteFrank-some hitters are just good at not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone and Jose Offerman was one of those. When a player walks 76 times per 162 games without having much pop in his bat, it is a skill he owns.
Royals fan lament: Jose Offerman was the last Royal to walk 75 times or more in a season. There have been 406 player seasons of more than 75 walks since, not counting this year.
Of course all the Pujols talk and what the Cardinals should do in the offseason brings up Prince Fielder as well.
ReplyDeleteHere's one of those "picture is worth a thousand words" type of graphs. There is a precedent for similar barrel chested slow slugging 1st basemen. Buyer beware.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/4613_899___ograph_%20_9_3_2011.png
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/4613_899___sgraph_%20_9_3_2011.png
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment of Pujol's being 'a bit more certain he can do something with tough pitches' because he's swinging at more balls outside of the strike zone.
ReplyDeleteReplace Pujol's name with Francouer's and you do not credit him for swinging at pitches he shouldn't, but you criticise him for being too impatient and not taking those pitches.
Not to dominate the comments section, but getting back to Pujols; I find these graphs endlessly fascinating:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1008315_1109_1177_1000001_ograph_%20_9_3_2011.png
Caption? So far so good...
@ alh00020 - the difference, of course, being that Albert Pujols hits like Albert Pujols just with less walks, and Jeff Francoeur hits like, well, Jeff Francoeur.
ReplyDeleteThis would be like someone writing "I disagree with your assessment that Michael Jordan started taking a lot more outside shots. Replace Michael Jordan with Stephon Marbury and you would criticize Marbury for taking lots of outside shots."
I think there are two issues with the IBB:
ReplyDelete1. Pujols' bad first month made him seem less threatening
2. Adding Berkman.
Now if Pujols walks, pitchers have to deal with both Holiday AND Berkman. TWO guys who will hit hard, not likely ground into a double play (GDP less times combined than Pujols), and there's almost a 60% chance at least one of the two will get a hit.
Now throw in Pujols' intelligent and good base running and suddenly the downside to intentionally walking Pujols is really big. Much bigger than if only Holiday or Berkman were hitting behind him.
He does seem to be on a tear lately, too. I know some of the traditional numbers (BA, RBI, Runs) are not as meaningful as we used to think, but I am still rooting for him to get to the .300/100/100 marks yet again.
ReplyDelete